The stock market showed a pulse near the close -- which is a plus.
So we could see a rally that lasts for several days.
Or a rally that lasts into the 4th of July.
Time will tell. As will volume and price. Those are the only three things that matter.
Prechter got all bearish again. Which suggests a small counter-trend rally is at hand. Perhaps.
The opening on Monday should be telling.
But I think we could go lots higher on Monday purely on short-covering.
That would be the extent of Primary 2's bullishness. Busting option premiums of the permabear's June puts, forcing shorts to rally, and getting the gold and silver bugs to go all in -- on margin.
That is what Primary 2 will do.
I am counting a completed five waves for Primary 1 down. A similar crash as seen in 2008 or 1987 or 1929.
So some selling pressure will be reduced.
Then the pancake collapse.
da bear
Friday, May 21, 2010
TOTAL GLOBAL MARTIAL LAW or PRIMARY 2: Which one comes first?
Last night I thought to myself, self why would you try to play DDM (bullish DOW ETF) plus UCO (bullish oil ETF)? are you insane? Richard Russell said that the biggie is here.
But my chart reading said, not so fast. I think we saw a good five wave move down in stocks.
So a corrective rally is due soon.
DOW 10,110 is important. very important.
it will determine if PRIMARY 2 up is here.
otherwise I will have to declare martial law.
da bear
But my chart reading said, not so fast. I think we saw a good five wave move down in stocks.
So a corrective rally is due soon.
DOW 10,110 is important. very important.
it will determine if PRIMARY 2 up is here.
otherwise I will have to declare martial law.
da bear
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Wal-Street Said Red
Stocks down.
Gold down.
Silver down.
the Jeffolie Bummer of a Summer got started early this year.
even the dollar is down.
and if this chart is right then some fat-fingered dollar bear had a big move on the market.
check out the temporary spike down to 82.
link: http://jsmineset.com/
The $1,187 mark was hit on gold today. Jim Sinclair has that as a support area. So let's see if that can hold. Time will tell. So let's watch and see. And go out and buy the new Jeffolie Death Watch from Timex! Takes a lickin', keeps on tickin', unless you're dead...
GLL the double inverse gold ETF is doing well, but it has come off the intraday highs. but are we gonna see a small wave v now, or is it headed lower? that could tell the story of gold.
Fiat Metals holding up well.
We are still on a Fiat Metals standard.
But for how long?
da bear
... or is it the Jeffolie Debt Watch?
Gold down.
Silver down.
the Jeffolie Bummer of a Summer got started early this year.
even the dollar is down.
and if this chart is right then some fat-fingered dollar bear had a big move on the market.
check out the temporary spike down to 82.
link: http://jsmineset.com/
The $1,187 mark was hit on gold today. Jim Sinclair has that as a support area. So let's see if that can hold. Time will tell. So let's watch and see. And go out and buy the new Jeffolie Death Watch from Timex! Takes a lickin', keeps on tickin', unless you're dead...
GLL the double inverse gold ETF is doing well, but it has come off the intraday highs. but are we gonna see a small wave v now, or is it headed lower? that could tell the story of gold.
Fiat Metals holding up well.
We are still on a Fiat Metals standard.
But for how long?
da bear
... or is it the Jeffolie Debt Watch?
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Close But No Cigar
Dear fans,
As I mentioned in the May Rant I wanted to see gold close above $12,50 in the next 8 to 13 trading sessions. Well, it got damn close today. The high was $1,249.60. Gold had a really nice 5 wave advance too. Plus the underside of my $1,250 to $1,300 pie in the sky target was sorta reached. I mentioned that range on here somewhere. Either in a blog post or as a comment to my post.
But gold has sold off a little in the past hour or so and is trading closer to $1,240. I would not be shocked if gold is topping out. Tomorrow is key. I could see gold going either way. Either up kinda big or down big. But the "Gold is going HIGHER" trade is looking a little too easy. Call me skeptical...
PAPER GOLD MAY BE TOPPING.
A close below $1,224 will be confirmation.
Gold has always looked funny to me on the charts. The past few years have been hugely bullish almost like an entire bull market in and of itself, but I never saw the mass adulation towards the yellow metal, to say nothing of a lack of the little guy getting into gold. Oh, and if gold were in its latter stages of a super cycle mania then I would be seeing former mortgage brokers opening up a coin shop on every corner. ... speaking of which I was in the local coin store today and yesterday and buying wasn't particularly strong. But people are interested. So we have a mini-blow off in gold into nominal all-time highs with a non-confirmation of several degrees in silver, with interest among the investoriat but with no real "mass accumulation." Plus, gold and silver are talked about in the main stream media -- but not really on the front pages. Dunno about volume either. But we do know that silver is flying high -- in percentage terms it has gone up more than gold in the past week or so. That tends to happen at the end of precious metals runs. Now, if the dollar was weak then gold and silver could run higher. But the little guy is about to buy. They usually miss out on the first leg up and back up the truck and mortgage the farm at the tops. I don't see either.
So then what I think we have is the D wave high of this complex CYCLE II correction that started in the spring of 2008. Check out the link to the chart of the May Rant. The D wave up move started from $1,080 or so. And I see a completed five wave advance off that low. Heck, the thing even had a throw-over. But I think we are closer to the end of the move (could have been at $1,249.60) than the beginning. The rest of the week should be telling. According to Elliott Wave, D waves have characteristics of bullish moves but within a bear market (correction). A final E wave lower (which would be confirmed if gold does not exceed $1,250 on a closing basis VERY SOON or if gold closes below the $1,200 and $1,187 levels). Targets for an E wave low are $900-$911 or around $1,000.
The DOW had a nice day. Got close to 11,000 again. It basically filled the gap of the panic crash.
So let us see know what happens.
I wouldn't be surprised if gold, silver, and stocks decline for the rest of the week.
A failure at DOW 11,000 would make the bulls panic again and give us more corrective action as the weather starts to heat up. So say the intraday panic collapse was a wave i. This upward retrace is a wave ii (should not exceed the previous high before the wave i down). Then a wave iii would take place. I wanna use Robin Landry's number of 9,500 for that.
Tomorrow is about reverse psychology. Like think about which stocks to short, how to hedge precious metals and backing up the truck for Fiat Metals. And will oil stop working its way lower? At least for a few days?
Be prepared for Fiat Metals Friday. And tomorrow? Reverse Psychology Reversal anyone?
da bear
As I mentioned in the May Rant I wanted to see gold close above $12,50 in the next 8 to 13 trading sessions. Well, it got damn close today. The high was $1,249.60. Gold had a really nice 5 wave advance too. Plus the underside of my $1,250 to $1,300 pie in the sky target was sorta reached. I mentioned that range on here somewhere. Either in a blog post or as a comment to my post.
But gold has sold off a little in the past hour or so and is trading closer to $1,240. I would not be shocked if gold is topping out. Tomorrow is key. I could see gold going either way. Either up kinda big or down big. But the "Gold is going HIGHER" trade is looking a little too easy. Call me skeptical...
PAPER GOLD MAY BE TOPPING.
A close below $1,224 will be confirmation.
Gold has always looked funny to me on the charts. The past few years have been hugely bullish almost like an entire bull market in and of itself, but I never saw the mass adulation towards the yellow metal, to say nothing of a lack of the little guy getting into gold. Oh, and if gold were in its latter stages of a super cycle mania then I would be seeing former mortgage brokers opening up a coin shop on every corner. ... speaking of which I was in the local coin store today and yesterday and buying wasn't particularly strong. But people are interested. So we have a mini-blow off in gold into nominal all-time highs with a non-confirmation of several degrees in silver, with interest among the investoriat but with no real "mass accumulation." Plus, gold and silver are talked about in the main stream media -- but not really on the front pages. Dunno about volume either. But we do know that silver is flying high -- in percentage terms it has gone up more than gold in the past week or so. That tends to happen at the end of precious metals runs. Now, if the dollar was weak then gold and silver could run higher. But the little guy is about to buy. They usually miss out on the first leg up and back up the truck and mortgage the farm at the tops. I don't see either.
So then what I think we have is the D wave high of this complex CYCLE II correction that started in the spring of 2008. Check out the link to the chart of the May Rant. The D wave up move started from $1,080 or so. And I see a completed five wave advance off that low. Heck, the thing even had a throw-over. But I think we are closer to the end of the move (could have been at $1,249.60) than the beginning. The rest of the week should be telling. According to Elliott Wave, D waves have characteristics of bullish moves but within a bear market (correction). A final E wave lower (which would be confirmed if gold does not exceed $1,250 on a closing basis VERY SOON or if gold closes below the $1,200 and $1,187 levels). Targets for an E wave low are $900-$911 or around $1,000.
The DOW had a nice day. Got close to 11,000 again. It basically filled the gap of the panic crash.
So let us see know what happens.
I wouldn't be surprised if gold, silver, and stocks decline for the rest of the week.
A failure at DOW 11,000 would make the bulls panic again and give us more corrective action as the weather starts to heat up. So say the intraday panic collapse was a wave i. This upward retrace is a wave ii (should not exceed the previous high before the wave i down). Then a wave iii would take place. I wanna use Robin Landry's number of 9,500 for that.
Tomorrow is about reverse psychology. Like think about which stocks to short, how to hedge precious metals and backing up the truck for Fiat Metals. And will oil stop working its way lower? At least for a few days?
Be prepared for Fiat Metals Friday. And tomorrow? Reverse Psychology Reversal anyone?
da bear
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Da Bear Rant: May Edition Part 1
Da Bear Rant
May Edition
by da bear
Congrats to gold! New all-time nominal highs! Which is very fun. Shoulda broken out my
"GOLD $1,225!" hats but I left mine at home... The See 'n Be Seen bug is showing gold at around $1,231 so the run-up the past several trading sessions has been absolutely breathtaking. Gold was at $1,125 not too long ago but then Greece happened again and Stocks Crash happen again. And gold bounced. GOLD is the investment for people who think that VIX is a vapor rub. GOLD is the investment for people who think that OIL is just a little too slick. Gold is the new money. If it is not the new money yet at least the ghost writer to Addison Wiggin's new book is writing the forward for MEET THE NEW MONEY. SAME AS THE OLD MONEY. as we speak. Speaking of which, Wiggins (aka the 'Wigginator') last book The Once And Future King or Money or something was borrowed from one of the old Daily Reckoning forum posters methinks, if I am not mistaken. Well, the future is now here, or it is on the way. And gold is king.
Silver had a very nice day today as well. Silver up over 80 cents. Last Friday it was up close to a dollar an ounce. So the precious metals are in mini-blowoff mode. Which is exciting. Usually what happens at the end of P.M. runs is that silver's gains in percentage terms outpaces those of gold. And that is what is happening now. Which either means that the run is nearly over, or if it is not over then the precious metals bullish run is running on Only Momentum, Fear, and Greed (OMFG!). So now I wanna see $20 silver taken out like a blonde floozie cheerleader on prom night. FAST. AND. HARD. Likewise, I wanna see gold maintain its momentum, gaining at least 9 or 10 bucks a day. Otherwise, the gold bugs could become exhausted. Gold could pull back some, but not too much. Gold above $1,200 is bullish. Below that I would get worried. Below $1,187 I would get more worried. Well, not really. What that would tell me -- what a weakening in the paper price of gold would tell me -- is that we can all back up the trucks at nominally lower physical gold prices. Like $1,000. Or $900. Which would be nice. As I posted on this blog earlier today, gold could very well run to $1,300 and still be within the confines of a bear market of cycle degree that began in the Spring of 2008. For gold to hit the lofty level of $1,300 I would believe that gold will have to close above $1,250 within the next 8 to 13 trading days. See, it's a momentum run now. What if some hot money wants to leave? What if the dollar rally starts to spook gold bugs? Maybe they wanna take some money of the table (so they can put it into cash. LOL. Great idea there, Cash for Money! Turn in your 'real' money and get 'fake' paper money -- at 38.2 cents on the dollar no less... but I digress) and shove it under the mattress.
Anyone who manufactures penny banks that are fitted only to take Silver Eagles will make a mint...
The dollar is running up nicely. Now it is above 84. Should run to at least 90. I am gonna say that it goes to 100. Well, after that it goes to about 50, but hey, before that it is gonna go to 100!
So there. There is your temporary bull market in paper fiat currencies.
"There's always a temporary bull market in paper fiat currencies! My job is to help you find it!"
My thinking is that hot money will hop into the US dollar aka the paper front of the Federal Reserve Note shadow monetary matrix, and perhaps siphon money out of either gold/silver or oil/nat. gas. This will happen to gold/silver if either $20 SILVER fails to hold or if GOLD breaks below $1,200. If the metals hold up then oil and nat. gas will fall. Hey, here is a point about fundamentals. Huge oil spill should be bad for the price of oil, well if this was 2007 or the summer of 2008 (basically anything that had any remote, tangential application to oil was bullish for the price of oil), but now this kind of news gets barely a bump from the bullish oil shills. Where are you now Bush-Cheney???? ... oil will go down until it gets to be a relative bargain for summer driving season. where is that? who knows? Maybe I will send an email to Hank Kissinger. He should know!!!!! ... last point on oil. Someone on the inner-nets mentioned that oil may have found the price that put the finishing screws on the consumer. I would think that he is right. Happened in the summer of 2008...
Here is the chart of gold that I have been looking at. I have a wave count for it so if I get my scanner working I will post it here or something.
link: http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/May1110Gold.pdf
Ok. Let me explain this chart. On the far left is the $1,219 high. I would argue that that is a corrective high following the Spring 2008 orthodox high for gold. So that would be the B wave high. Then you have a five wave correction into the $1,040 low. I would count this five wave decline as an a-b-c-d-e decline. That would be the C wave low. And if you remember the A wave low into November of 2008 was around $690-$700ish. So the C wave low was quite a bit higher. Ok, so off that C wave low you get a nice bounce up to about $1,140-$1,146. I would count that as wave 1 of D up. (D waves are the bastard children of the Elliott Wave cult. Actually, the bullish bastard children -- which would make E waves the bearish bastard children of the Elliott Wave cult. Yeah, check out that in wiki or something. I have a copy of an old Prechter book that explains it. I will copy said section verbatim here. At some point. Kinda feel lazy this week.) Then you get a wave 2 down to $1,080. That's a two. If I am a two I am saying to attack the defender and drive right into the paint. Wait, sorry, I just channeled Hubie Brown for some reason... Then gold rips the face off the Gold Men Shorts and rallies to $1,168.50. So that is wave 3 of D. Then the minor a, b, c correction into $1,120 or so. That there is your '4.' I think it was $1,125. So yeah now gold is at $1,231 or so. That is your wave 5 of D. But I am basically counting five waves off the '4' low and the channels have been hit on the upside so this run is near over unless momentum carries it forward. $1,187 to $1,200 are the short term support levels to watch for. Ok, after wave D is over then we get a Wave E decline. Could be higher highs. $1,146 looks good. Once wave D is in place, CYCLE II is over and CYCLE III up is here. Could happen as early as late July or as late as early September. What about August? Fuck August, I just wanna go to the beach...
Ok. This concludes Part 1.
Part 2 will come out tomorrow.
I will post this part of da Rant (Part 1) on da board tomorrow.
Next up: Stocks. tomorrow and beyond. HINT: FAT FINGERED BULLS told to lose weight. bulls losing momentum. hard to stop a bear going full steam.
Finally, wow! A Da Bear Day today. A Da Bear Day is one where stocks decline and gold and silver rise with silver rising more in percentage terms. Full-fledged da bear day with the dollar up and oil down too.
da bear
May Edition
by da bear
Congrats to gold! New all-time nominal highs! Which is very fun. Shoulda broken out my
"GOLD $1,225!" hats but I left mine at home... The See 'n Be Seen bug is showing gold at around $1,231 so the run-up the past several trading sessions has been absolutely breathtaking. Gold was at $1,125 not too long ago but then Greece happened again and Stocks Crash happen again. And gold bounced. GOLD is the investment for people who think that VIX is a vapor rub. GOLD is the investment for people who think that OIL is just a little too slick. Gold is the new money. If it is not the new money yet at least the ghost writer to Addison Wiggin's new book is writing the forward for MEET THE NEW MONEY. SAME AS THE OLD MONEY. as we speak. Speaking of which, Wiggins (aka the 'Wigginator') last book The Once And Future King or Money or something was borrowed from one of the old Daily Reckoning forum posters methinks, if I am not mistaken. Well, the future is now here, or it is on the way. And gold is king.
Silver had a very nice day today as well. Silver up over 80 cents. Last Friday it was up close to a dollar an ounce. So the precious metals are in mini-blowoff mode. Which is exciting. Usually what happens at the end of P.M. runs is that silver's gains in percentage terms outpaces those of gold. And that is what is happening now. Which either means that the run is nearly over, or if it is not over then the precious metals bullish run is running on Only Momentum, Fear, and Greed (OMFG!). So now I wanna see $20 silver taken out like a blonde floozie cheerleader on prom night. FAST. AND. HARD. Likewise, I wanna see gold maintain its momentum, gaining at least 9 or 10 bucks a day. Otherwise, the gold bugs could become exhausted. Gold could pull back some, but not too much. Gold above $1,200 is bullish. Below that I would get worried. Below $1,187 I would get more worried. Well, not really. What that would tell me -- what a weakening in the paper price of gold would tell me -- is that we can all back up the trucks at nominally lower physical gold prices. Like $1,000. Or $900. Which would be nice. As I posted on this blog earlier today, gold could very well run to $1,300 and still be within the confines of a bear market of cycle degree that began in the Spring of 2008. For gold to hit the lofty level of $1,300 I would believe that gold will have to close above $1,250 within the next 8 to 13 trading days. See, it's a momentum run now. What if some hot money wants to leave? What if the dollar rally starts to spook gold bugs? Maybe they wanna take some money of the table (so they can put it into cash. LOL. Great idea there, Cash for Money! Turn in your 'real' money and get 'fake' paper money -- at 38.2 cents on the dollar no less... but I digress) and shove it under the mattress.
Anyone who manufactures penny banks that are fitted only to take Silver Eagles will make a mint...
The dollar is running up nicely. Now it is above 84. Should run to at least 90. I am gonna say that it goes to 100. Well, after that it goes to about 50, but hey, before that it is gonna go to 100!
So there. There is your temporary bull market in paper fiat currencies.
"There's always a temporary bull market in paper fiat currencies! My job is to help you find it!"
My thinking is that hot money will hop into the US dollar aka the paper front of the Federal Reserve Note shadow monetary matrix, and perhaps siphon money out of either gold/silver or oil/nat. gas. This will happen to gold/silver if either $20 SILVER fails to hold or if GOLD breaks below $1,200. If the metals hold up then oil and nat. gas will fall. Hey, here is a point about fundamentals. Huge oil spill should be bad for the price of oil, well if this was 2007 or the summer of 2008 (basically anything that had any remote, tangential application to oil was bullish for the price of oil), but now this kind of news gets barely a bump from the bullish oil shills. Where are you now Bush-Cheney???? ... oil will go down until it gets to be a relative bargain for summer driving season. where is that? who knows? Maybe I will send an email to Hank Kissinger. He should know!!!!! ... last point on oil. Someone on the inner-nets mentioned that oil may have found the price that put the finishing screws on the consumer. I would think that he is right. Happened in the summer of 2008...
Here is the chart of gold that I have been looking at. I have a wave count for it so if I get my scanner working I will post it here or something.
link: http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/May1110Gold.pdf
Ok. Let me explain this chart. On the far left is the $1,219 high. I would argue that that is a corrective high following the Spring 2008 orthodox high for gold. So that would be the B wave high. Then you have a five wave correction into the $1,040 low. I would count this five wave decline as an a-b-c-d-e decline. That would be the C wave low. And if you remember the A wave low into November of 2008 was around $690-$700ish. So the C wave low was quite a bit higher. Ok, so off that C wave low you get a nice bounce up to about $1,140-$1,146. I would count that as wave 1 of D up. (D waves are the bastard children of the Elliott Wave cult. Actually, the bullish bastard children -- which would make E waves the bearish bastard children of the Elliott Wave cult. Yeah, check out that in wiki or something. I have a copy of an old Prechter book that explains it. I will copy said section verbatim here. At some point. Kinda feel lazy this week.) Then you get a wave 2 down to $1,080. That's a two. If I am a two I am saying to attack the defender and drive right into the paint. Wait, sorry, I just channeled Hubie Brown for some reason... Then gold rips the face off the Gold Men Shorts and rallies to $1,168.50. So that is wave 3 of D. Then the minor a, b, c correction into $1,120 or so. That there is your '4.' I think it was $1,125. So yeah now gold is at $1,231 or so. That is your wave 5 of D. But I am basically counting five waves off the '4' low and the channels have been hit on the upside so this run is near over unless momentum carries it forward. $1,187 to $1,200 are the short term support levels to watch for. Ok, after wave D is over then we get a Wave E decline. Could be higher highs. $1,146 looks good. Once wave D is in place, CYCLE II is over and CYCLE III up is here. Could happen as early as late July or as late as early September. What about August? Fuck August, I just wanna go to the beach...
Ok. This concludes Part 1.
Part 2 will come out tomorrow.
I will post this part of da Rant (Part 1) on da board tomorrow.
Next up: Stocks. tomorrow and beyond. HINT: FAT FINGERED BULLS told to lose weight. bulls losing momentum. hard to stop a bear going full steam.
Finally, wow! A Da Bear Day today. A Da Bear Day is one where stocks decline and gold and silver rise with silver rising more in percentage terms. Full-fledged da bear day with the dollar up and oil down too.
da bear
After Lunch Afternoon Update
This is the After Lunch Afternoon Update. DOW went up, then down 99, then back up. Now the DOW is fractionally lower (by .15). Could get a reversal, which would be bad news for the bulls.
Gold is having a great day. Earlier in the day it flirted with nominal all-time highs of the $1,224-$1,225 area. That is the good news. The bad news, short-term is that this may be a potential short-term top. The chart I am looking at shows gold in a complex correction with a possible Corrective Double Top (CDT). That is, the orthodox top came in the Spring of 2008. Then the first $1,224 top and now this top could just be corrective double tops. And for this part of the move I am counting a completed five waves. If I can get that chart to you with my wave counts and trend lines drawn I will do so. My scanner is acting up on me...
I want to see a gold close into NEW all-time nominal highs by the end of the week. That would be nice. Last week's mini-spike in gold may have been an exhaustive short-covering rally, acting more like the VIX (fear index) than anything. It is possible that we may need to see that much panic in the stock market to take gold up another fifty to sixty bucks an ounce in short order.
Gold basically ran up from $1,125 to $1,225 in no time. Very impressive. I would say that that was foreshadowing to the next long uptrend in gold -- that will happen when the world's investors stay away from fiat currencies in droves and turn to precious metals. I think that that will happen by the end of the year. Probably September/October. That would then mean that the Last Great Buying Opportunity (LGBO) for Gold and Silver will come this summer.
If gold finds its way below $1,200 then a low in gold between June and July should find our favorite yellow metal closer to $900 to $1,000 an ounce. This scenario will occur once gold breaks below $1,200 an ounce with confirmation of Another Down Move (ADM) at $1,187.
But, if we get another panic crash in stocks then gold could rally up another $50 or so in hours so I wouldn't short the farm or anything. I like the gold bull's target prices of $1662 or $2,000 and higher. I actually think that long-term gold is headed for $10,000 -- but that might take awhile.
However, I don't see a paper gold price higher than $1,300 before we get a substantial pullback.
Ok, so we know that gold needs to hold $1,200 and that the easy money in gold was made last week until now. Gold is running on momentum, fear, and greed now. Which is an awesome combination, but if either of those three Axis of Mass Psychology fails then some air could come out of the gold price. Silver has also had a nice run-up -- but silver also outperforms the yellow metal at the end of precious metals runs. Now I wanna see what silver does at $20. If it hits it and turns down then that is bad news. If it reverses in the next few days without getting any closer to $20 then that is bearish. I would be bullish on silver if it ran up past $20 quickly. Then we will look at $22.50. Gold would be nearing $1,300 in that bullish scenario. But I think that chances of this happening are less than 50-50.
I will post a Rant on here soon. But I kinda want to see the close. Maybe it tells us something.
Maybe it doesn't. Traders are standing near the exits. What will happen if someone yells "FIRE!"?
da bear
Gold is having a great day. Earlier in the day it flirted with nominal all-time highs of the $1,224-$1,225 area. That is the good news. The bad news, short-term is that this may be a potential short-term top. The chart I am looking at shows gold in a complex correction with a possible Corrective Double Top (CDT). That is, the orthodox top came in the Spring of 2008. Then the first $1,224 top and now this top could just be corrective double tops. And for this part of the move I am counting a completed five waves. If I can get that chart to you with my wave counts and trend lines drawn I will do so. My scanner is acting up on me...
I want to see a gold close into NEW all-time nominal highs by the end of the week. That would be nice. Last week's mini-spike in gold may have been an exhaustive short-covering rally, acting more like the VIX (fear index) than anything. It is possible that we may need to see that much panic in the stock market to take gold up another fifty to sixty bucks an ounce in short order.
Gold basically ran up from $1,125 to $1,225 in no time. Very impressive. I would say that that was foreshadowing to the next long uptrend in gold -- that will happen when the world's investors stay away from fiat currencies in droves and turn to precious metals. I think that that will happen by the end of the year. Probably September/October. That would then mean that the Last Great Buying Opportunity (LGBO) for Gold and Silver will come this summer.
If gold finds its way below $1,200 then a low in gold between June and July should find our favorite yellow metal closer to $900 to $1,000 an ounce. This scenario will occur once gold breaks below $1,200 an ounce with confirmation of Another Down Move (ADM) at $1,187.
But, if we get another panic crash in stocks then gold could rally up another $50 or so in hours so I wouldn't short the farm or anything. I like the gold bull's target prices of $1662 or $2,000 and higher. I actually think that long-term gold is headed for $10,000 -- but that might take awhile.
However, I don't see a paper gold price higher than $1,300 before we get a substantial pullback.
Ok, so we know that gold needs to hold $1,200 and that the easy money in gold was made last week until now. Gold is running on momentum, fear, and greed now. Which is an awesome combination, but if either of those three Axis of Mass Psychology fails then some air could come out of the gold price. Silver has also had a nice run-up -- but silver also outperforms the yellow metal at the end of precious metals runs. Now I wanna see what silver does at $20. If it hits it and turns down then that is bad news. If it reverses in the next few days without getting any closer to $20 then that is bearish. I would be bullish on silver if it ran up past $20 quickly. Then we will look at $22.50. Gold would be nearing $1,300 in that bullish scenario. But I think that chances of this happening are less than 50-50.
I will post a Rant on here soon. But I kinda want to see the close. Maybe it tells us something.
Maybe it doesn't. Traders are standing near the exits. What will happen if someone yells "FIRE!"?
da bear
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)