The stock market showed a pulse near the close -- which is a plus.
So we could see a rally that lasts for several days.
Or a rally that lasts into the 4th of July.
Time will tell. As will volume and price. Those are the only three things that matter.
Prechter got all bearish again. Which suggests a small counter-trend rally is at hand. Perhaps.
The opening on Monday should be telling.
But I think we could go lots higher on Monday purely on short-covering.
That would be the extent of Primary 2's bullishness. Busting option premiums of the permabear's June puts, forcing shorts to rally, and getting the gold and silver bugs to go all in -- on margin.
That is what Primary 2 will do.
I am counting a completed five waves for Primary 1 down. A similar crash as seen in 2008 or 1987 or 1929.
So some selling pressure will be reduced.
Then the pancake collapse.
da bear
Friday, May 21, 2010
TOTAL GLOBAL MARTIAL LAW or PRIMARY 2: Which one comes first?
Last night I thought to myself, self why would you try to play DDM (bullish DOW ETF) plus UCO (bullish oil ETF)? are you insane? Richard Russell said that the biggie is here.
But my chart reading said, not so fast. I think we saw a good five wave move down in stocks.
So a corrective rally is due soon.
DOW 10,110 is important. very important.
it will determine if PRIMARY 2 up is here.
otherwise I will have to declare martial law.
da bear
But my chart reading said, not so fast. I think we saw a good five wave move down in stocks.
So a corrective rally is due soon.
DOW 10,110 is important. very important.
it will determine if PRIMARY 2 up is here.
otherwise I will have to declare martial law.
da bear
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Wal-Street Said Red
Stocks down.
Gold down.
Silver down.
the Jeffolie Bummer of a Summer got started early this year.
even the dollar is down.
and if this chart is right then some fat-fingered dollar bear had a big move on the market.
check out the temporary spike down to 82.
link: http://jsmineset.com/
The $1,187 mark was hit on gold today. Jim Sinclair has that as a support area. So let's see if that can hold. Time will tell. So let's watch and see. And go out and buy the new Jeffolie Death Watch from Timex! Takes a lickin', keeps on tickin', unless you're dead...
GLL the double inverse gold ETF is doing well, but it has come off the intraday highs. but are we gonna see a small wave v now, or is it headed lower? that could tell the story of gold.
Fiat Metals holding up well.
We are still on a Fiat Metals standard.
But for how long?
da bear
... or is it the Jeffolie Debt Watch?
Gold down.
Silver down.
the Jeffolie Bummer of a Summer got started early this year.
even the dollar is down.
and if this chart is right then some fat-fingered dollar bear had a big move on the market.
check out the temporary spike down to 82.
link: http://jsmineset.com/
The $1,187 mark was hit on gold today. Jim Sinclair has that as a support area. So let's see if that can hold. Time will tell. So let's watch and see. And go out and buy the new Jeffolie Death Watch from Timex! Takes a lickin', keeps on tickin', unless you're dead...
GLL the double inverse gold ETF is doing well, but it has come off the intraday highs. but are we gonna see a small wave v now, or is it headed lower? that could tell the story of gold.
Fiat Metals holding up well.
We are still on a Fiat Metals standard.
But for how long?
da bear
... or is it the Jeffolie Debt Watch?
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Close But No Cigar
Dear fans,
As I mentioned in the May Rant I wanted to see gold close above $12,50 in the next 8 to 13 trading sessions. Well, it got damn close today. The high was $1,249.60. Gold had a really nice 5 wave advance too. Plus the underside of my $1,250 to $1,300 pie in the sky target was sorta reached. I mentioned that range on here somewhere. Either in a blog post or as a comment to my post.
But gold has sold off a little in the past hour or so and is trading closer to $1,240. I would not be shocked if gold is topping out. Tomorrow is key. I could see gold going either way. Either up kinda big or down big. But the "Gold is going HIGHER" trade is looking a little too easy. Call me skeptical...
PAPER GOLD MAY BE TOPPING.
A close below $1,224 will be confirmation.
Gold has always looked funny to me on the charts. The past few years have been hugely bullish almost like an entire bull market in and of itself, but I never saw the mass adulation towards the yellow metal, to say nothing of a lack of the little guy getting into gold. Oh, and if gold were in its latter stages of a super cycle mania then I would be seeing former mortgage brokers opening up a coin shop on every corner. ... speaking of which I was in the local coin store today and yesterday and buying wasn't particularly strong. But people are interested. So we have a mini-blow off in gold into nominal all-time highs with a non-confirmation of several degrees in silver, with interest among the investoriat but with no real "mass accumulation." Plus, gold and silver are talked about in the main stream media -- but not really on the front pages. Dunno about volume either. But we do know that silver is flying high -- in percentage terms it has gone up more than gold in the past week or so. That tends to happen at the end of precious metals runs. Now, if the dollar was weak then gold and silver could run higher. But the little guy is about to buy. They usually miss out on the first leg up and back up the truck and mortgage the farm at the tops. I don't see either.
So then what I think we have is the D wave high of this complex CYCLE II correction that started in the spring of 2008. Check out the link to the chart of the May Rant. The D wave up move started from $1,080 or so. And I see a completed five wave advance off that low. Heck, the thing even had a throw-over. But I think we are closer to the end of the move (could have been at $1,249.60) than the beginning. The rest of the week should be telling. According to Elliott Wave, D waves have characteristics of bullish moves but within a bear market (correction). A final E wave lower (which would be confirmed if gold does not exceed $1,250 on a closing basis VERY SOON or if gold closes below the $1,200 and $1,187 levels). Targets for an E wave low are $900-$911 or around $1,000.
The DOW had a nice day. Got close to 11,000 again. It basically filled the gap of the panic crash.
So let us see know what happens.
I wouldn't be surprised if gold, silver, and stocks decline for the rest of the week.
A failure at DOW 11,000 would make the bulls panic again and give us more corrective action as the weather starts to heat up. So say the intraday panic collapse was a wave i. This upward retrace is a wave ii (should not exceed the previous high before the wave i down). Then a wave iii would take place. I wanna use Robin Landry's number of 9,500 for that.
Tomorrow is about reverse psychology. Like think about which stocks to short, how to hedge precious metals and backing up the truck for Fiat Metals. And will oil stop working its way lower? At least for a few days?
Be prepared for Fiat Metals Friday. And tomorrow? Reverse Psychology Reversal anyone?
da bear
As I mentioned in the May Rant I wanted to see gold close above $12,50 in the next 8 to 13 trading sessions. Well, it got damn close today. The high was $1,249.60. Gold had a really nice 5 wave advance too. Plus the underside of my $1,250 to $1,300 pie in the sky target was sorta reached. I mentioned that range on here somewhere. Either in a blog post or as a comment to my post.
But gold has sold off a little in the past hour or so and is trading closer to $1,240. I would not be shocked if gold is topping out. Tomorrow is key. I could see gold going either way. Either up kinda big or down big. But the "Gold is going HIGHER" trade is looking a little too easy. Call me skeptical...
PAPER GOLD MAY BE TOPPING.
A close below $1,224 will be confirmation.
Gold has always looked funny to me on the charts. The past few years have been hugely bullish almost like an entire bull market in and of itself, but I never saw the mass adulation towards the yellow metal, to say nothing of a lack of the little guy getting into gold. Oh, and if gold were in its latter stages of a super cycle mania then I would be seeing former mortgage brokers opening up a coin shop on every corner. ... speaking of which I was in the local coin store today and yesterday and buying wasn't particularly strong. But people are interested. So we have a mini-blow off in gold into nominal all-time highs with a non-confirmation of several degrees in silver, with interest among the investoriat but with no real "mass accumulation." Plus, gold and silver are talked about in the main stream media -- but not really on the front pages. Dunno about volume either. But we do know that silver is flying high -- in percentage terms it has gone up more than gold in the past week or so. That tends to happen at the end of precious metals runs. Now, if the dollar was weak then gold and silver could run higher. But the little guy is about to buy. They usually miss out on the first leg up and back up the truck and mortgage the farm at the tops. I don't see either.
So then what I think we have is the D wave high of this complex CYCLE II correction that started in the spring of 2008. Check out the link to the chart of the May Rant. The D wave up move started from $1,080 or so. And I see a completed five wave advance off that low. Heck, the thing even had a throw-over. But I think we are closer to the end of the move (could have been at $1,249.60) than the beginning. The rest of the week should be telling. According to Elliott Wave, D waves have characteristics of bullish moves but within a bear market (correction). A final E wave lower (which would be confirmed if gold does not exceed $1,250 on a closing basis VERY SOON or if gold closes below the $1,200 and $1,187 levels). Targets for an E wave low are $900-$911 or around $1,000.
The DOW had a nice day. Got close to 11,000 again. It basically filled the gap of the panic crash.
So let us see know what happens.
I wouldn't be surprised if gold, silver, and stocks decline for the rest of the week.
A failure at DOW 11,000 would make the bulls panic again and give us more corrective action as the weather starts to heat up. So say the intraday panic collapse was a wave i. This upward retrace is a wave ii (should not exceed the previous high before the wave i down). Then a wave iii would take place. I wanna use Robin Landry's number of 9,500 for that.
Tomorrow is about reverse psychology. Like think about which stocks to short, how to hedge precious metals and backing up the truck for Fiat Metals. And will oil stop working its way lower? At least for a few days?
Be prepared for Fiat Metals Friday. And tomorrow? Reverse Psychology Reversal anyone?
da bear
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Da Bear Rant: May Edition Part 1
Da Bear Rant
May Edition
by da bear
Congrats to gold! New all-time nominal highs! Which is very fun. Shoulda broken out my
"GOLD $1,225!" hats but I left mine at home... The See 'n Be Seen bug is showing gold at around $1,231 so the run-up the past several trading sessions has been absolutely breathtaking. Gold was at $1,125 not too long ago but then Greece happened again and Stocks Crash happen again. And gold bounced. GOLD is the investment for people who think that VIX is a vapor rub. GOLD is the investment for people who think that OIL is just a little too slick. Gold is the new money. If it is not the new money yet at least the ghost writer to Addison Wiggin's new book is writing the forward for MEET THE NEW MONEY. SAME AS THE OLD MONEY. as we speak. Speaking of which, Wiggins (aka the 'Wigginator') last book The Once And Future King or Money or something was borrowed from one of the old Daily Reckoning forum posters methinks, if I am not mistaken. Well, the future is now here, or it is on the way. And gold is king.
Silver had a very nice day today as well. Silver up over 80 cents. Last Friday it was up close to a dollar an ounce. So the precious metals are in mini-blowoff mode. Which is exciting. Usually what happens at the end of P.M. runs is that silver's gains in percentage terms outpaces those of gold. And that is what is happening now. Which either means that the run is nearly over, or if it is not over then the precious metals bullish run is running on Only Momentum, Fear, and Greed (OMFG!). So now I wanna see $20 silver taken out like a blonde floozie cheerleader on prom night. FAST. AND. HARD. Likewise, I wanna see gold maintain its momentum, gaining at least 9 or 10 bucks a day. Otherwise, the gold bugs could become exhausted. Gold could pull back some, but not too much. Gold above $1,200 is bullish. Below that I would get worried. Below $1,187 I would get more worried. Well, not really. What that would tell me -- what a weakening in the paper price of gold would tell me -- is that we can all back up the trucks at nominally lower physical gold prices. Like $1,000. Or $900. Which would be nice. As I posted on this blog earlier today, gold could very well run to $1,300 and still be within the confines of a bear market of cycle degree that began in the Spring of 2008. For gold to hit the lofty level of $1,300 I would believe that gold will have to close above $1,250 within the next 8 to 13 trading days. See, it's a momentum run now. What if some hot money wants to leave? What if the dollar rally starts to spook gold bugs? Maybe they wanna take some money of the table (so they can put it into cash. LOL. Great idea there, Cash for Money! Turn in your 'real' money and get 'fake' paper money -- at 38.2 cents on the dollar no less... but I digress) and shove it under the mattress.
Anyone who manufactures penny banks that are fitted only to take Silver Eagles will make a mint...
The dollar is running up nicely. Now it is above 84. Should run to at least 90. I am gonna say that it goes to 100. Well, after that it goes to about 50, but hey, before that it is gonna go to 100!
So there. There is your temporary bull market in paper fiat currencies.
"There's always a temporary bull market in paper fiat currencies! My job is to help you find it!"
My thinking is that hot money will hop into the US dollar aka the paper front of the Federal Reserve Note shadow monetary matrix, and perhaps siphon money out of either gold/silver or oil/nat. gas. This will happen to gold/silver if either $20 SILVER fails to hold or if GOLD breaks below $1,200. If the metals hold up then oil and nat. gas will fall. Hey, here is a point about fundamentals. Huge oil spill should be bad for the price of oil, well if this was 2007 or the summer of 2008 (basically anything that had any remote, tangential application to oil was bullish for the price of oil), but now this kind of news gets barely a bump from the bullish oil shills. Where are you now Bush-Cheney???? ... oil will go down until it gets to be a relative bargain for summer driving season. where is that? who knows? Maybe I will send an email to Hank Kissinger. He should know!!!!! ... last point on oil. Someone on the inner-nets mentioned that oil may have found the price that put the finishing screws on the consumer. I would think that he is right. Happened in the summer of 2008...
Here is the chart of gold that I have been looking at. I have a wave count for it so if I get my scanner working I will post it here or something.
link: http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/May1110Gold.pdf
Ok. Let me explain this chart. On the far left is the $1,219 high. I would argue that that is a corrective high following the Spring 2008 orthodox high for gold. So that would be the B wave high. Then you have a five wave correction into the $1,040 low. I would count this five wave decline as an a-b-c-d-e decline. That would be the C wave low. And if you remember the A wave low into November of 2008 was around $690-$700ish. So the C wave low was quite a bit higher. Ok, so off that C wave low you get a nice bounce up to about $1,140-$1,146. I would count that as wave 1 of D up. (D waves are the bastard children of the Elliott Wave cult. Actually, the bullish bastard children -- which would make E waves the bearish bastard children of the Elliott Wave cult. Yeah, check out that in wiki or something. I have a copy of an old Prechter book that explains it. I will copy said section verbatim here. At some point. Kinda feel lazy this week.) Then you get a wave 2 down to $1,080. That's a two. If I am a two I am saying to attack the defender and drive right into the paint. Wait, sorry, I just channeled Hubie Brown for some reason... Then gold rips the face off the Gold Men Shorts and rallies to $1,168.50. So that is wave 3 of D. Then the minor a, b, c correction into $1,120 or so. That there is your '4.' I think it was $1,125. So yeah now gold is at $1,231 or so. That is your wave 5 of D. But I am basically counting five waves off the '4' low and the channels have been hit on the upside so this run is near over unless momentum carries it forward. $1,187 to $1,200 are the short term support levels to watch for. Ok, after wave D is over then we get a Wave E decline. Could be higher highs. $1,146 looks good. Once wave D is in place, CYCLE II is over and CYCLE III up is here. Could happen as early as late July or as late as early September. What about August? Fuck August, I just wanna go to the beach...
Ok. This concludes Part 1.
Part 2 will come out tomorrow.
I will post this part of da Rant (Part 1) on da board tomorrow.
Next up: Stocks. tomorrow and beyond. HINT: FAT FINGERED BULLS told to lose weight. bulls losing momentum. hard to stop a bear going full steam.
Finally, wow! A Da Bear Day today. A Da Bear Day is one where stocks decline and gold and silver rise with silver rising more in percentage terms. Full-fledged da bear day with the dollar up and oil down too.
da bear
May Edition
by da bear
Congrats to gold! New all-time nominal highs! Which is very fun. Shoulda broken out my
"GOLD $1,225!" hats but I left mine at home... The See 'n Be Seen bug is showing gold at around $1,231 so the run-up the past several trading sessions has been absolutely breathtaking. Gold was at $1,125 not too long ago but then Greece happened again and Stocks Crash happen again. And gold bounced. GOLD is the investment for people who think that VIX is a vapor rub. GOLD is the investment for people who think that OIL is just a little too slick. Gold is the new money. If it is not the new money yet at least the ghost writer to Addison Wiggin's new book is writing the forward for MEET THE NEW MONEY. SAME AS THE OLD MONEY. as we speak. Speaking of which, Wiggins (aka the 'Wigginator') last book The Once And Future King or Money or something was borrowed from one of the old Daily Reckoning forum posters methinks, if I am not mistaken. Well, the future is now here, or it is on the way. And gold is king.
Silver had a very nice day today as well. Silver up over 80 cents. Last Friday it was up close to a dollar an ounce. So the precious metals are in mini-blowoff mode. Which is exciting. Usually what happens at the end of P.M. runs is that silver's gains in percentage terms outpaces those of gold. And that is what is happening now. Which either means that the run is nearly over, or if it is not over then the precious metals bullish run is running on Only Momentum, Fear, and Greed (OMFG!). So now I wanna see $20 silver taken out like a blonde floozie cheerleader on prom night. FAST. AND. HARD. Likewise, I wanna see gold maintain its momentum, gaining at least 9 or 10 bucks a day. Otherwise, the gold bugs could become exhausted. Gold could pull back some, but not too much. Gold above $1,200 is bullish. Below that I would get worried. Below $1,187 I would get more worried. Well, not really. What that would tell me -- what a weakening in the paper price of gold would tell me -- is that we can all back up the trucks at nominally lower physical gold prices. Like $1,000. Or $900. Which would be nice. As I posted on this blog earlier today, gold could very well run to $1,300 and still be within the confines of a bear market of cycle degree that began in the Spring of 2008. For gold to hit the lofty level of $1,300 I would believe that gold will have to close above $1,250 within the next 8 to 13 trading days. See, it's a momentum run now. What if some hot money wants to leave? What if the dollar rally starts to spook gold bugs? Maybe they wanna take some money of the table (so they can put it into cash. LOL. Great idea there, Cash for Money! Turn in your 'real' money and get 'fake' paper money -- at 38.2 cents on the dollar no less... but I digress) and shove it under the mattress.
Anyone who manufactures penny banks that are fitted only to take Silver Eagles will make a mint...
The dollar is running up nicely. Now it is above 84. Should run to at least 90. I am gonna say that it goes to 100. Well, after that it goes to about 50, but hey, before that it is gonna go to 100!
So there. There is your temporary bull market in paper fiat currencies.
"There's always a temporary bull market in paper fiat currencies! My job is to help you find it!"
My thinking is that hot money will hop into the US dollar aka the paper front of the Federal Reserve Note shadow monetary matrix, and perhaps siphon money out of either gold/silver or oil/nat. gas. This will happen to gold/silver if either $20 SILVER fails to hold or if GOLD breaks below $1,200. If the metals hold up then oil and nat. gas will fall. Hey, here is a point about fundamentals. Huge oil spill should be bad for the price of oil, well if this was 2007 or the summer of 2008 (basically anything that had any remote, tangential application to oil was bullish for the price of oil), but now this kind of news gets barely a bump from the bullish oil shills. Where are you now Bush-Cheney???? ... oil will go down until it gets to be a relative bargain for summer driving season. where is that? who knows? Maybe I will send an email to Hank Kissinger. He should know!!!!! ... last point on oil. Someone on the inner-nets mentioned that oil may have found the price that put the finishing screws on the consumer. I would think that he is right. Happened in the summer of 2008...
Here is the chart of gold that I have been looking at. I have a wave count for it so if I get my scanner working I will post it here or something.
link: http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/May1110Gold.pdf
Ok. Let me explain this chart. On the far left is the $1,219 high. I would argue that that is a corrective high following the Spring 2008 orthodox high for gold. So that would be the B wave high. Then you have a five wave correction into the $1,040 low. I would count this five wave decline as an a-b-c-d-e decline. That would be the C wave low. And if you remember the A wave low into November of 2008 was around $690-$700ish. So the C wave low was quite a bit higher. Ok, so off that C wave low you get a nice bounce up to about $1,140-$1,146. I would count that as wave 1 of D up. (D waves are the bastard children of the Elliott Wave cult. Actually, the bullish bastard children -- which would make E waves the bearish bastard children of the Elliott Wave cult. Yeah, check out that in wiki or something. I have a copy of an old Prechter book that explains it. I will copy said section verbatim here. At some point. Kinda feel lazy this week.) Then you get a wave 2 down to $1,080. That's a two. If I am a two I am saying to attack the defender and drive right into the paint. Wait, sorry, I just channeled Hubie Brown for some reason... Then gold rips the face off the Gold Men Shorts and rallies to $1,168.50. So that is wave 3 of D. Then the minor a, b, c correction into $1,120 or so. That there is your '4.' I think it was $1,125. So yeah now gold is at $1,231 or so. That is your wave 5 of D. But I am basically counting five waves off the '4' low and the channels have been hit on the upside so this run is near over unless momentum carries it forward. $1,187 to $1,200 are the short term support levels to watch for. Ok, after wave D is over then we get a Wave E decline. Could be higher highs. $1,146 looks good. Once wave D is in place, CYCLE II is over and CYCLE III up is here. Could happen as early as late July or as late as early September. What about August? Fuck August, I just wanna go to the beach...
Ok. This concludes Part 1.
Part 2 will come out tomorrow.
I will post this part of da Rant (Part 1) on da board tomorrow.
Next up: Stocks. tomorrow and beyond. HINT: FAT FINGERED BULLS told to lose weight. bulls losing momentum. hard to stop a bear going full steam.
Finally, wow! A Da Bear Day today. A Da Bear Day is one where stocks decline and gold and silver rise with silver rising more in percentage terms. Full-fledged da bear day with the dollar up and oil down too.
da bear
After Lunch Afternoon Update
This is the After Lunch Afternoon Update. DOW went up, then down 99, then back up. Now the DOW is fractionally lower (by .15). Could get a reversal, which would be bad news for the bulls.
Gold is having a great day. Earlier in the day it flirted with nominal all-time highs of the $1,224-$1,225 area. That is the good news. The bad news, short-term is that this may be a potential short-term top. The chart I am looking at shows gold in a complex correction with a possible Corrective Double Top (CDT). That is, the orthodox top came in the Spring of 2008. Then the first $1,224 top and now this top could just be corrective double tops. And for this part of the move I am counting a completed five waves. If I can get that chart to you with my wave counts and trend lines drawn I will do so. My scanner is acting up on me...
I want to see a gold close into NEW all-time nominal highs by the end of the week. That would be nice. Last week's mini-spike in gold may have been an exhaustive short-covering rally, acting more like the VIX (fear index) than anything. It is possible that we may need to see that much panic in the stock market to take gold up another fifty to sixty bucks an ounce in short order.
Gold basically ran up from $1,125 to $1,225 in no time. Very impressive. I would say that that was foreshadowing to the next long uptrend in gold -- that will happen when the world's investors stay away from fiat currencies in droves and turn to precious metals. I think that that will happen by the end of the year. Probably September/October. That would then mean that the Last Great Buying Opportunity (LGBO) for Gold and Silver will come this summer.
If gold finds its way below $1,200 then a low in gold between June and July should find our favorite yellow metal closer to $900 to $1,000 an ounce. This scenario will occur once gold breaks below $1,200 an ounce with confirmation of Another Down Move (ADM) at $1,187.
But, if we get another panic crash in stocks then gold could rally up another $50 or so in hours so I wouldn't short the farm or anything. I like the gold bull's target prices of $1662 or $2,000 and higher. I actually think that long-term gold is headed for $10,000 -- but that might take awhile.
However, I don't see a paper gold price higher than $1,300 before we get a substantial pullback.
Ok, so we know that gold needs to hold $1,200 and that the easy money in gold was made last week until now. Gold is running on momentum, fear, and greed now. Which is an awesome combination, but if either of those three Axis of Mass Psychology fails then some air could come out of the gold price. Silver has also had a nice run-up -- but silver also outperforms the yellow metal at the end of precious metals runs. Now I wanna see what silver does at $20. If it hits it and turns down then that is bad news. If it reverses in the next few days without getting any closer to $20 then that is bearish. I would be bullish on silver if it ran up past $20 quickly. Then we will look at $22.50. Gold would be nearing $1,300 in that bullish scenario. But I think that chances of this happening are less than 50-50.
I will post a Rant on here soon. But I kinda want to see the close. Maybe it tells us something.
Maybe it doesn't. Traders are standing near the exits. What will happen if someone yells "FIRE!"?
da bear
Gold is having a great day. Earlier in the day it flirted with nominal all-time highs of the $1,224-$1,225 area. That is the good news. The bad news, short-term is that this may be a potential short-term top. The chart I am looking at shows gold in a complex correction with a possible Corrective Double Top (CDT). That is, the orthodox top came in the Spring of 2008. Then the first $1,224 top and now this top could just be corrective double tops. And for this part of the move I am counting a completed five waves. If I can get that chart to you with my wave counts and trend lines drawn I will do so. My scanner is acting up on me...
I want to see a gold close into NEW all-time nominal highs by the end of the week. That would be nice. Last week's mini-spike in gold may have been an exhaustive short-covering rally, acting more like the VIX (fear index) than anything. It is possible that we may need to see that much panic in the stock market to take gold up another fifty to sixty bucks an ounce in short order.
Gold basically ran up from $1,125 to $1,225 in no time. Very impressive. I would say that that was foreshadowing to the next long uptrend in gold -- that will happen when the world's investors stay away from fiat currencies in droves and turn to precious metals. I think that that will happen by the end of the year. Probably September/October. That would then mean that the Last Great Buying Opportunity (LGBO) for Gold and Silver will come this summer.
If gold finds its way below $1,200 then a low in gold between June and July should find our favorite yellow metal closer to $900 to $1,000 an ounce. This scenario will occur once gold breaks below $1,200 an ounce with confirmation of Another Down Move (ADM) at $1,187.
But, if we get another panic crash in stocks then gold could rally up another $50 or so in hours so I wouldn't short the farm or anything. I like the gold bull's target prices of $1662 or $2,000 and higher. I actually think that long-term gold is headed for $10,000 -- but that might take awhile.
However, I don't see a paper gold price higher than $1,300 before we get a substantial pullback.
Ok, so we know that gold needs to hold $1,200 and that the easy money in gold was made last week until now. Gold is running on momentum, fear, and greed now. Which is an awesome combination, but if either of those three Axis of Mass Psychology fails then some air could come out of the gold price. Silver has also had a nice run-up -- but silver also outperforms the yellow metal at the end of precious metals runs. Now I wanna see what silver does at $20. If it hits it and turns down then that is bad news. If it reverses in the next few days without getting any closer to $20 then that is bearish. I would be bullish on silver if it ran up past $20 quickly. Then we will look at $22.50. Gold would be nearing $1,300 in that bullish scenario. But I think that chances of this happening are less than 50-50.
I will post a Rant on here soon. But I kinda want to see the close. Maybe it tells us something.
Maybe it doesn't. Traders are standing near the exits. What will happen if someone yells "FIRE!"?
da bear
Friday, April 30, 2010
Da Friday Market Review
Da markets did not do so hot today. Well unless you were out of the wrong markets and into the right markets then you did just fine. The wrong markets to be in are stocks as they seem to be topping out. The rally is looking long in the tooth and any further gains will be minimal. The volatility in stocks this week means that traders are not too sure of what is going on. A read one market watcher posit that this is due to "churning" where fast money is moving in and out of different sectors trying to find something of value; stocks are also being shifted from strong hands to weak hands. Thus, the stock market is in a topping process. The next step after the topping process would be the "stocks are breaking down" phase. But we are seeing hints of that already as Goldman Sachs had a bad day today and is threatening to break below technical resistance. I don't have the charts out but it appears that you could get a faint hint of a head-and-shoulders topping pattern in the Goldman Sachs chart (ticker symbol: GS). The stock is off a good ways from its recent highs. So that one is breaking down. Oh, and all the other financial stocks were down some today too. They always say that the overall market doesn't weaken until the financial stocks sell off. Well, it looks like they are currently doing so. And Goldman Sachs could very well be this leg down's Bear Stearns. Ahh, why hedge? Goldman Sachs WILL BE the Bear Stearns-esque poster boy for Wave 3 down.
If I am not mistaken home building stocks were also down today (if they weren't then disregard this sentence). Two of da chicks on See 'n Be Seen (for those home gamers hooked into the inner-nuts go to Dubya-dubya-dubya dot See 'n Be Seen dot CON) said that the tax credit for new home buyers expires today. But I don't see the huge rush to go out and buy a new-and-imroved McMansions (new-and-improved McMansion is real-tee-whore-speak for old, used, and dilapidated McWalk-inClosetwithDoublePlusPropertyTaxes). It seems as though people are calling the banksters' bluff and continuing to rent and not get any more "over-extended" ("over-extended" is Bankster New Speak for 'not throwing good money they don't have after bad money they don't have). Houses will not clear the market in meaningful numbers until the price of an average house reflects what the average home purchaser can afford. Prices are still relatively too high as is the supply of houses. Also, most new home sales are foreclosures -- and I would guess that they are being bought up by 'specuvestors' and not actual would-be homeowners. "Rich Dad" types as opposed to "Genuine Wealthy Uncle" types.
Generally speaking, don't buy the FIRST bank-owned house in a neighborhood. Buy the LAST bank-owned house in a neighborhood. And, crazy, as it sounds my upcoming Tulip Mania Too Point Oh will coincide with a bottoming out of the Real Estate Market (REM).
The no-brainer investment of the year (Fiat Metals) is doing just fine. Go to your local bank teller and ask him or her about them. Pick some up. Better yet, pick a lot up. If you cannot pick a lot up then buy a gym membership or use Jim's membership, get your butt down there, and start working out dammit. Because the Spring Selling Season for Houses may be over, but the Summer Buying Season for Picking Up Women is fast approaching. It is called the Full Fiat Metals Full Body Workout. More on that later...
DOW 11,008. DOW is still above 11,000. But just barely. DOW below 11,000 is when the people are gonna start getting worried. Sell-in May and Go Away (And Don't Come Back 'til Judgment Day) is gonna get here right on time. Not enough upside in stocks and too much downside (DOW 3,256...) for me to advocate staying in. If the DOW and other indices have already put in their nominal highs for this Great Suckers' Rally then this bull-esque run could mimic the 1930 secondary top if it churns in May, sells off violently in June, bottoms out around the 4th of July then rallies into Labor Day somewhat before all hell breaks lose again. Basically, this market has too many warning signs to remain bullish. The next few weeks are very important. As is Monday's market action.
Gold had a good day. Up another ten bucks to around $1,179 an ounce. Gold bucked the downtrend along with silver. The VIX was up too. Not sure what the dollar did. It is sitting at 82 and it is in a trading range between 80 and 83 until further notice. Gold rising is not a good omen for paper money. Silver is running up nicely, going up 39 cents an ounce on Thursday. I wouldn't rule out a run at $20. As I posted in a gold thread on Da Message Board $1,179 GOLD is very important. As it could go either way. Well, now let's see which way it goes. What it does will tell us what we should do along with rounding out our core position in gold (if we have not yet done so) and continued buying schedule (every few weeks or whatever works). If gold continues to rally then we buy more silver. If gold's rally fails then the start to really back up the trucks on Fiat Metals. Craig Oxley thinks that the US will stop producing coinage in September. So between now and then will be "back up the truck" time for Fiat Metals. Starting in September it will be the 'last decent chance to get into physical gold' time. ... quickly followed by "the last best chance to buy physical silver" timeframe.
Short-term gold above $1,180 means that gold can run-up to new nominal all-time highs. We could see a mini-panic spike all the way up to $1,250-$1,300 until the next cyclical correction (quite possibly the last one before the next long bullish phase begins). A weak July for stocks could bring down paper gold prices, but as long as stocks don't completely collapse I can see gold having reasons to push higher in the month of May. I am thinking of doing one of these updates during Monday's trading session. I am also thinking of doing one of these overviews after the close every Friday. So stay tuned...
... and have a great weekend everybody!
da bear
Capo di tutti capi.
If I am not mistaken home building stocks were also down today (if they weren't then disregard this sentence). Two of da chicks on See 'n Be Seen (for those home gamers hooked into the inner-nuts go to Dubya-dubya-dubya dot See 'n Be Seen dot CON) said that the tax credit for new home buyers expires today. But I don't see the huge rush to go out and buy a new-and-imroved McMansions (new-and-improved McMansion is real-tee-whore-speak for old, used, and dilapidated McWalk-inClosetwithDoublePlusPropertyTaxes). It seems as though people are calling the banksters' bluff and continuing to rent and not get any more "over-extended" ("over-extended" is Bankster New Speak for 'not throwing good money they don't have after bad money they don't have). Houses will not clear the market in meaningful numbers until the price of an average house reflects what the average home purchaser can afford. Prices are still relatively too high as is the supply of houses. Also, most new home sales are foreclosures -- and I would guess that they are being bought up by 'specuvestors' and not actual would-be homeowners. "Rich Dad" types as opposed to "Genuine Wealthy Uncle" types.
Generally speaking, don't buy the FIRST bank-owned house in a neighborhood. Buy the LAST bank-owned house in a neighborhood. And, crazy, as it sounds my upcoming Tulip Mania Too Point Oh will coincide with a bottoming out of the Real Estate Market (REM).
The no-brainer investment of the year (Fiat Metals) is doing just fine. Go to your local bank teller and ask him or her about them. Pick some up. Better yet, pick a lot up. If you cannot pick a lot up then buy a gym membership or use Jim's membership, get your butt down there, and start working out dammit. Because the Spring Selling Season for Houses may be over, but the Summer Buying Season for Picking Up Women is fast approaching. It is called the Full Fiat Metals Full Body Workout. More on that later...
DOW 11,008. DOW is still above 11,000. But just barely. DOW below 11,000 is when the people are gonna start getting worried. Sell-in May and Go Away (And Don't Come Back 'til Judgment Day) is gonna get here right on time. Not enough upside in stocks and too much downside (DOW 3,256...) for me to advocate staying in. If the DOW and other indices have already put in their nominal highs for this Great Suckers' Rally then this bull-esque run could mimic the 1930 secondary top if it churns in May, sells off violently in June, bottoms out around the 4th of July then rallies into Labor Day somewhat before all hell breaks lose again. Basically, this market has too many warning signs to remain bullish. The next few weeks are very important. As is Monday's market action.
Gold had a good day. Up another ten bucks to around $1,179 an ounce. Gold bucked the downtrend along with silver. The VIX was up too. Not sure what the dollar did. It is sitting at 82 and it is in a trading range between 80 and 83 until further notice. Gold rising is not a good omen for paper money. Silver is running up nicely, going up 39 cents an ounce on Thursday. I wouldn't rule out a run at $20. As I posted in a gold thread on Da Message Board $1,179 GOLD is very important. As it could go either way. Well, now let's see which way it goes. What it does will tell us what we should do along with rounding out our core position in gold (if we have not yet done so) and continued buying schedule (every few weeks or whatever works). If gold continues to rally then we buy more silver. If gold's rally fails then the start to really back up the trucks on Fiat Metals. Craig Oxley thinks that the US will stop producing coinage in September. So between now and then will be "back up the truck" time for Fiat Metals. Starting in September it will be the 'last decent chance to get into physical gold' time. ... quickly followed by "the last best chance to buy physical silver" timeframe.
Short-term gold above $1,180 means that gold can run-up to new nominal all-time highs. We could see a mini-panic spike all the way up to $1,250-$1,300 until the next cyclical correction (quite possibly the last one before the next long bullish phase begins). A weak July for stocks could bring down paper gold prices, but as long as stocks don't completely collapse I can see gold having reasons to push higher in the month of May. I am thinking of doing one of these updates during Monday's trading session. I am also thinking of doing one of these overviews after the close every Friday. So stay tuned...
... and have a great weekend everybody!
da bear
Capo di tutti capi.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Saturday Afternoon
Happy Saturday to all in Da Bear World Order land. Last night it rained like crazy, this morning it kept on going. When it rains it pours, except for the several minutes that it hailed. Yes, all hail broke loose. But then the sun decided to get out and stay for awhile. Then it went away, I think it is taking a morning nap. The clouds are here, the sun is not but it is close by, but I can see clearly now the rain is gone.
If gold were a big round shiny ball in the universe, it would probably be the sun. It shines brightly, it is always there, sometimes it burns you, and if you look at it too closely for too long you'll lose your vision and go mad, but there ain't nothing like the sun...
Gold also rises.
There is nothing new with gold.
Gold is resting today, yeah it gets a couple of days off. Good for it. It could take off more if it wanted. Gold is gold and gold does what gold wants. But gold shows up in the morning just for fun. It doesn't wanna lose its edge. It's not even about the money for gold; for gold, money is merely a way of keeping store.
Gold is currently priced around $1,150 an ounce. The recent past has been stormy for gold, gold has been beaten down, suppressed. Tremendous amounts of liquidity has been infused and withdrawn thus confusing gold and driving the gold bugs crazy. Gold went to bed for a fitful night sleep, biding its time. Then, when you thought that the stormy times had passed, all hell broke loose. But you knew that gold was still there. Somewhere. Then gold woke up and made an appearance. If only for a moment in the morning. Then the clouds rolled back in. But gold will be back later, stronger than ever, spring is here and summer is approaching. Gold's time in the sun is drawing near. Sunny days are on their way.
da bear
If gold were a big round shiny ball in the universe, it would probably be the sun. It shines brightly, it is always there, sometimes it burns you, and if you look at it too closely for too long you'll lose your vision and go mad, but there ain't nothing like the sun...
Gold also rises.
There is nothing new with gold.
Gold is resting today, yeah it gets a couple of days off. Good for it. It could take off more if it wanted. Gold is gold and gold does what gold wants. But gold shows up in the morning just for fun. It doesn't wanna lose its edge. It's not even about the money for gold; for gold, money is merely a way of keeping store.
Gold is currently priced around $1,150 an ounce. The recent past has been stormy for gold, gold has been beaten down, suppressed. Tremendous amounts of liquidity has been infused and withdrawn thus confusing gold and driving the gold bugs crazy. Gold went to bed for a fitful night sleep, biding its time. Then, when you thought that the stormy times had passed, all hell broke loose. But you knew that gold was still there. Somewhere. Then gold woke up and made an appearance. If only for a moment in the morning. Then the clouds rolled back in. But gold will be back later, stronger than ever, spring is here and summer is approaching. Gold's time in the sun is drawing near. Sunny days are on their way.
da bear
Monday, April 12, 2010
DBWO FOR LIFE! A introduction to Da Bear World Order and what it can do for you!
What is Da Bear World Order?
Is it something you want to be a part of?
How much are entry fees?
Do you have to know the Kennedy clan to be apart of it?
Here are the answers: Yes. Prices are negotiable and we offer financing at competitive interest rates based on LIBOR. It wouldn't hurt.
Da Bear World Order is the world order for those who were not tapped to join the New World Order. Da Bear World Order is like the sorority for chubby chicks. Which is to say, there is nothing wrong with chubby chicks... And there is nothing wrong with Da Bear World Order either. But it is not exactly the Bildergerer's. Build-A-Burger perhaps...
Da Bear World Order is a secret society for those who either cannot keep a secret, or have no dirty laundry, inside stories, or conspiracy chat worth talking about. But just because we are outside the loop doesn't mean we are entirely loopy.
If Da Bear World Order were a football conference it would not be eligible to participate in a Bowl Championship Series. But it could still beat the living fuck out of Oklahoma in a top tier bowl game...
Da Bear World Order, aka DBWO, is about playing by your own rules within their game. It is for those people who like the idea of a Tea Party and what it stands for (kinda) but understand that it is run by Republican hacks and operatives (what, by the way, is the difference between a 'hack' and an 'operative'? Is a hack in any way, shape, or form in some way less than an operative? Is the hack the unpaid intern of the Republican Corporation? Are hacks made up entirely of Alex P. Keaton and other members of the Young Republicans? If the hack is the young guy, the rookie, then intern, the pleb, then I guess the 'operatives' are for those who have graduated into full-right-wing-creep mode. In order to be an operative I suppose, you have to have had done some dirty work for the Bush Crime Family, have gone shopping for shoes with Karl Rove, or are currently the head camera man for Sean Hannity. You have to had spent years in the system to be a official 'operative' of the Republican party. You get the official Republican operative decoder ring. And you wear it. With pride. You 'respect' the political career of Richard Nixon. You 'get' Dick Cheney. You 'remember' what the 'G' in G. Gordon Liddy stands for. You get away with calling Oliver North 'Ollie' without getting traded to a South American junta for rusty rifles and decent hash.)
The Coffee Party, on the other hand is comprised mainly of Democratic Party 'hacks' and 'operatives.' Democratic Party hacks are better known as being LaRouche lackey drop-outs and kids who attended the "Liberal Arts Ivies" such as say Williams, majored in subjects such as Political Science and English, but who, nonetheless, have absolutely no chance in hell of getting into any halfway decent accredited law school -- not even Cooley...
Democratic 'operatives' within the Ruling Elite of the Coffee Party are comprised mainly of former Republican party 'hacks' who failed no make the cut for Republican Operativedom. Yes, being a Democratic 'operative' is the B Team to the Republican Party's A Team -- except for the fact that the Republican Party's A Team has no black people. (Yes, that would mean that Michael Steele is still within the confines of the 'hack team.' Michael Steele is still in the minors, somewhere between double A ball and triple A ball. For the Republicans, titular recognition matters not. That is the great thing about the Republican Party. They confuse the fuck out of you.)
What does that, dear reader, have to do with Da Bear World Order? Well, I will tell you in the best way that I can. That is by typing furiously, single-mindedly, and with no regard for humanity. I will start by saying this: it took hundreds of years for the Republican Party and the Democratic Party to form subversive political parties -- parties made primarily of those working for the Big Bad Guys and putting the good little guys on lists (Bill Bonner's AgoraCo. Mailing List for example). But I don't play by their rules. I play by my own rules. And I break my own rules. That is why I have established a rogue political party -- a front front group -- without formally forming an established political party. They have the coffee parties and the tea parties. I have the Green Tea Party. My Green Tea Party is comprised of Da Bear World Order Party aka Da Grand Old Da Bear World Order Party (DGODBWOP) hacks and operatives -- a mainstream political party that I retroactively formed and whose bylaws, corporate charters, and T-shirts say was formed in the inauspicious year of 1984 (it would have been the party of Ronald Reagan had Ronald Reagan done a better job of playing Ronald Reagan. Da Bear World Order Party Defeats Mondale in LANDSLIDE!!!!). The hacks comprising the not-so-talented-tenth of dubiously 'Christian' private high schools, guys who think that the CIA is a cooking school (which it really is, but don't tell them that), and somewhat groovy dudes who used to be hacks in the Libertarian and Green parties but who thought the leadership was lame (Ralph Nader and the guy who runs lewrockwell.com... it could be a guy named Lew Rockwell for all I know...) and who realized that Da Bear World Order Party had better chicks ("Chicks Dig Da Bear!" t-shirts now on sale for the low, low, low price of $9.11!!!). My party operatives are former operatives of the mainstream political parties, the Democrats, the Republicans, the General Electric Party (yes, G.E. is also a political party), and the Lutherans. I poached these operatives with promises of stock options (don't laugh, because I sure as hell didn't when I offered them that during salary negotations), access to a used foose ball table, and two and a half weeks at our time share in Modesto.
The official business plan of The Green Tea Party (comprised of Demopublicans twice removed) is to unite the fringe left (the hippy, dippy, save the Earth at all costs unless it is trying to take over the world, down with corporations except for the dudes that make Volkswagons, Apple computers, and dread locks, pot-smoking Naderites) and the fringe right (the buzz-cut and mullett-wearing, Ron Paul voting, Sarah Palin impersonator toe-sucking, militia joining, votech school dropping-outing, France hating yet I only put ketchup and mustard on my hot dog for 4th of July eating, pot-bellied Reaganites). Indeed, The Green Tea Party unites the fringe left and the fringe right in order to form a fuzzy-headed fringe middle.
So I now have a back story to the political machinations of Da Bear World Order along with the requisite quasi-bogus political party to bring my nutty dreams to fruition.
How to spot a Da Bear World Orderite:
He asks the local bank teller about change. Then he asks the local bank teller to put his 5,000 pennies into duffle bags...
He rants about how gold is the only form of money! ... other than silver, of course.
He thinks that the love of paper money is the root of all paper cuts.
He thinks that the drinking age should be lowered to 18, and the voting age should be raised to 21. The reasoning being that a young, first-time voter would make better decisions at the ballot box if he or she had been drunk for three straight years. He also thinks that beer and liquor should only be legal for people under the age of 35. After that your ass needs to get sober. Just in case you live in Poland, the whole government of that country dies in a plane crash (Air Titanic), and it just so happens that you are next in the line of succession and are made president (kinda like in the movie "King Ralph" starring, perhaps 'starring' is too strong a word, maybe 'featuring' John Goodman, or 'filling-in-for-John-Candy'...)
He orders iced green tea at Starbuck's and actually drinks it.
He or she is in opposition to the direct election of Senators. Da Bear World Orderites think that having the people actually vote for Senators is too direct and messy. He instead proposes a more convoluted process whereby election is rather murky yet somehow majestically ordained. They are somewhat Calvinistic in this sense.
He thinks the 'Progressive Era' amendments are a fraud.
He thinks that California is a fraud, but would nonetheless would contemplate instigating a civil war between Northern California and Southern California and would make the hiring of illegal Mexican invaders (as opposed to legal Mexican invaders) the McGuffin (a McGuffin is a worthless artifact or flimsy premise around which an entire movie is made. Such as the Holy Grail in "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade," the Raiders in the "Raiders of the Lost Decades of the Al Davis Regime", Elizabeth Berkley in "Showgirls" -- her boobs exempted, Mac Culkin in "Home Alone", and the future in "Back to the Future" parts one, two, and three). This particular civil war would be started by the Yankee Californians sinking the Queen Mary in Long Beach, then the Confederate Californians would retaliate by pointing out the current, deplorable state of Silicon Valley. Famous battles would ensue. The Battle of Fresno would be interrupted in order for a fire fight to break out in The Battle of Fresno: The California Civil War Edition. Similar battles would take place in Los Angeles (current intertribal and extratribal warfare in the LA county environs, aka LOS DETROIT, and moved to Simi Valley to take place at a later date in time). The occupation of Disneyland by Yankee California forces will prove to be a tipping point. Another tipping point would be the HUGE Red Chinese Army's failure to act for the benefit of the Southern California Confederacy as classes at CalTech and UC Irvine are still in session...).
Obama would then turn on his teleprompter and give a speech freeing the illegal aliens presently in the area south of Santa Barbara (certain areas north of Santa Barbara played off one side against the other, selling gee-gaws and t-shirts to both sides. Fucking Solvang!), exhorting the Mexican Expats (Mexipats) to invade the rest of the country thus infecting the rest of Obama Nation with cheap labor, gangs in white t-shirts, and upiquitous taqueria mystery meat...
da bear
Any questions?
Is it something you want to be a part of?
How much are entry fees?
Do you have to know the Kennedy clan to be apart of it?
Here are the answers: Yes. Prices are negotiable and we offer financing at competitive interest rates based on LIBOR. It wouldn't hurt.
Da Bear World Order is the world order for those who were not tapped to join the New World Order. Da Bear World Order is like the sorority for chubby chicks. Which is to say, there is nothing wrong with chubby chicks... And there is nothing wrong with Da Bear World Order either. But it is not exactly the Bildergerer's. Build-A-Burger perhaps...
Da Bear World Order is a secret society for those who either cannot keep a secret, or have no dirty laundry, inside stories, or conspiracy chat worth talking about. But just because we are outside the loop doesn't mean we are entirely loopy.
If Da Bear World Order were a football conference it would not be eligible to participate in a Bowl Championship Series. But it could still beat the living fuck out of Oklahoma in a top tier bowl game...
Da Bear World Order, aka DBWO, is about playing by your own rules within their game. It is for those people who like the idea of a Tea Party and what it stands for (kinda) but understand that it is run by Republican hacks and operatives (what, by the way, is the difference between a 'hack' and an 'operative'? Is a hack in any way, shape, or form in some way less than an operative? Is the hack the unpaid intern of the Republican Corporation? Are hacks made up entirely of Alex P. Keaton and other members of the Young Republicans? If the hack is the young guy, the rookie, then intern, the pleb, then I guess the 'operatives' are for those who have graduated into full-right-wing-creep mode. In order to be an operative I suppose, you have to have had done some dirty work for the Bush Crime Family, have gone shopping for shoes with Karl Rove, or are currently the head camera man for Sean Hannity. You have to had spent years in the system to be a official 'operative' of the Republican party. You get the official Republican operative decoder ring. And you wear it. With pride. You 'respect' the political career of Richard Nixon. You 'get' Dick Cheney. You 'remember' what the 'G' in G. Gordon Liddy stands for. You get away with calling Oliver North 'Ollie' without getting traded to a South American junta for rusty rifles and decent hash.)
The Coffee Party, on the other hand is comprised mainly of Democratic Party 'hacks' and 'operatives.' Democratic Party hacks are better known as being LaRouche lackey drop-outs and kids who attended the "Liberal Arts Ivies" such as say Williams, majored in subjects such as Political Science and English, but who, nonetheless, have absolutely no chance in hell of getting into any halfway decent accredited law school -- not even Cooley...
Democratic 'operatives' within the Ruling Elite of the Coffee Party are comprised mainly of former Republican party 'hacks' who failed no make the cut for Republican Operativedom. Yes, being a Democratic 'operative' is the B Team to the Republican Party's A Team -- except for the fact that the Republican Party's A Team has no black people. (Yes, that would mean that Michael Steele is still within the confines of the 'hack team.' Michael Steele is still in the minors, somewhere between double A ball and triple A ball. For the Republicans, titular recognition matters not. That is the great thing about the Republican Party. They confuse the fuck out of you.)
What does that, dear reader, have to do with Da Bear World Order? Well, I will tell you in the best way that I can. That is by typing furiously, single-mindedly, and with no regard for humanity. I will start by saying this: it took hundreds of years for the Republican Party and the Democratic Party to form subversive political parties -- parties made primarily of those working for the Big Bad Guys and putting the good little guys on lists (Bill Bonner's AgoraCo. Mailing List for example). But I don't play by their rules. I play by my own rules. And I break my own rules. That is why I have established a rogue political party -- a front front group -- without formally forming an established political party. They have the coffee parties and the tea parties. I have the Green Tea Party. My Green Tea Party is comprised of Da Bear World Order Party aka Da Grand Old Da Bear World Order Party (DGODBWOP) hacks and operatives -- a mainstream political party that I retroactively formed and whose bylaws, corporate charters, and T-shirts say was formed in the inauspicious year of 1984 (it would have been the party of Ronald Reagan had Ronald Reagan done a better job of playing Ronald Reagan. Da Bear World Order Party Defeats Mondale in LANDSLIDE!!!!). The hacks comprising the not-so-talented-tenth of dubiously 'Christian' private high schools, guys who think that the CIA is a cooking school (which it really is, but don't tell them that), and somewhat groovy dudes who used to be hacks in the Libertarian and Green parties but who thought the leadership was lame (Ralph Nader and the guy who runs lewrockwell.com... it could be a guy named Lew Rockwell for all I know...) and who realized that Da Bear World Order Party had better chicks ("Chicks Dig Da Bear!" t-shirts now on sale for the low, low, low price of $9.11!!!). My party operatives are former operatives of the mainstream political parties, the Democrats, the Republicans, the General Electric Party (yes, G.E. is also a political party), and the Lutherans. I poached these operatives with promises of stock options (don't laugh, because I sure as hell didn't when I offered them that during salary negotations), access to a used foose ball table, and two and a half weeks at our time share in Modesto.
The official business plan of The Green Tea Party (comprised of Demopublicans twice removed) is to unite the fringe left (the hippy, dippy, save the Earth at all costs unless it is trying to take over the world, down with corporations except for the dudes that make Volkswagons, Apple computers, and dread locks, pot-smoking Naderites) and the fringe right (the buzz-cut and mullett-wearing, Ron Paul voting, Sarah Palin impersonator toe-sucking, militia joining, votech school dropping-outing, France hating yet I only put ketchup and mustard on my hot dog for 4th of July eating, pot-bellied Reaganites). Indeed, The Green Tea Party unites the fringe left and the fringe right in order to form a fuzzy-headed fringe middle.
So I now have a back story to the political machinations of Da Bear World Order along with the requisite quasi-bogus political party to bring my nutty dreams to fruition.
How to spot a Da Bear World Orderite:
He asks the local bank teller about change. Then he asks the local bank teller to put his 5,000 pennies into duffle bags...
He rants about how gold is the only form of money! ... other than silver, of course.
He thinks that the love of paper money is the root of all paper cuts.
He thinks that the drinking age should be lowered to 18, and the voting age should be raised to 21. The reasoning being that a young, first-time voter would make better decisions at the ballot box if he or she had been drunk for three straight years. He also thinks that beer and liquor should only be legal for people under the age of 35. After that your ass needs to get sober. Just in case you live in Poland, the whole government of that country dies in a plane crash (Air Titanic), and it just so happens that you are next in the line of succession and are made president (kinda like in the movie "King Ralph" starring, perhaps 'starring' is too strong a word, maybe 'featuring' John Goodman, or 'filling-in-for-John-Candy'...)
He orders iced green tea at Starbuck's and actually drinks it.
He or she is in opposition to the direct election of Senators. Da Bear World Orderites think that having the people actually vote for Senators is too direct and messy. He instead proposes a more convoluted process whereby election is rather murky yet somehow majestically ordained. They are somewhat Calvinistic in this sense.
He thinks the 'Progressive Era' amendments are a fraud.
He thinks that California is a fraud, but would nonetheless would contemplate instigating a civil war between Northern California and Southern California and would make the hiring of illegal Mexican invaders (as opposed to legal Mexican invaders) the McGuffin (a McGuffin is a worthless artifact or flimsy premise around which an entire movie is made. Such as the Holy Grail in "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade," the Raiders in the "Raiders of the Lost Decades of the Al Davis Regime", Elizabeth Berkley in "Showgirls" -- her boobs exempted, Mac Culkin in "Home Alone", and the future in "Back to the Future" parts one, two, and three). This particular civil war would be started by the Yankee Californians sinking the Queen Mary in Long Beach, then the Confederate Californians would retaliate by pointing out the current, deplorable state of Silicon Valley. Famous battles would ensue. The Battle of Fresno would be interrupted in order for a fire fight to break out in The Battle of Fresno: The California Civil War Edition. Similar battles would take place in Los Angeles (current intertribal and extratribal warfare in the LA county environs, aka LOS DETROIT, and moved to Simi Valley to take place at a later date in time). The occupation of Disneyland by Yankee California forces will prove to be a tipping point. Another tipping point would be the HUGE Red Chinese Army's failure to act for the benefit of the Southern California Confederacy as classes at CalTech and UC Irvine are still in session...).
Obama would then turn on his teleprompter and give a speech freeing the illegal aliens presently in the area south of Santa Barbara (certain areas north of Santa Barbara played off one side against the other, selling gee-gaws and t-shirts to both sides. Fucking Solvang!), exhorting the Mexican Expats (Mexipats) to invade the rest of the country thus infecting the rest of Obama Nation with cheap labor, gangs in white t-shirts, and upiquitous taqueria mystery meat...
da bear
Any questions?
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Obama Nation, Tea Parties, and You!
If Politics is the Art of Doing Stuff, and I think it is when you get right down to it, then Obama got points from the pointy-headed politicos for ramming down the universal health care legislation down numerous throats in the House and Senate. He did something, that Obama, that talker and back slapper. He really, really did something.
It does not matter that this bill is likely to bankrupt the US (it's not about you, it's about US) if you ask all the conservative pundits. It is a giveaway to the medical-industrial complex says the Hannity's and the Rush's and the Glenn Beck's of the world (and of their world too). That is true.
But, Mister Michelle Obama got something done. He did stuff. And that is what our leaders do nowadays. They either get stuff done or they don't. ... besides the fact that THEY hate us (Why do they HATE Americans???) and want to impoverish us and spy on us and confuse us with a bunch of facts that aren't true (cough, global warming, cough). But Obama got stuff done. And the retrobate Republican Representative retreads did not. They stood in the way, they say, this Party of No (or as they say in the Universal Mexican States of Meximerica, the home of future Californians everywhere, the Party of 'No.' Or better yet, the Fiesta of No.) and accomplished nothing but selling magazines for TIME and NEWSWEEK (but isn't that all that counts?).
The Republicans offered no real solutions. They just wanted to get on the TeeVee and "spew hatred." So they get no points for this.
I hate to interrupt my rant in order to, umm, rant but I don't get the whole "Obama is driving us to Bankruptistan." Hasn't this "country", this vassal state of the City of London and Wall Street and the gnomes of Zurich and the fat bastards of Saudi Arabia, been operating out of bankrutpcy since 1933? And haven't we been headed towards bankruptcy since no later than the Year 2000? We would have been done and finished for had it not been for Nine-Eleven aka Super-Duper-Neo-Keynesianism with missiles, mini-nukes, and CGI airplanes. So why all the hate towards Obama?
"Obama will be a one term president!" shout the "venomy spewing racist haters with spew and venom" (those are not my words, those are the words of Nancy Pelosi. seriously. look it up.)
Of course Obama will be a one term-president!, I might add. However, his term may last anywhere from six more months to 60 more years. But the guy is gonna be a one term president...
Obama got health care 'done.' So the opposition is wasting its time on this issue as long as the stock markets keep rising (that is all that matters these days). Then when the stock markets fail to rise, or even worse, succeed at rising downward (crashing), the "spitting, spiting, venomy spewers of hate" will be back in full force. But this time they will win, carrying seats in the House in the upcoming mid-term elections. But their victory will be Pyrric. Their gains will be temporary. For the Dems will be sunk in November, the Repubs sunk by December, and life will go on without an entrenched political establishment.
Universial Health Care. What, it's like if Medicare had a children's menu? I don't get it. But usually I try to stay out of places with a children's menu. Just trumped up junk food, over-priced, lowest-common-denominator selection, and too many spoiled brats, whiney kids, and screaming babies running around. Come to think of it, that basically explains the Universal Health Care bill and surrounding pomp and circumstance.
Obama matters today. In the Art of Doing Stuff, doing stuff will make you an artist. Or a politician with nuclear launch codes... The Republicans did nothing. A vast majority of Democrats accompanied the Republicans in their pursuit of nothingness. The two party system is dead. We have a dictator running a nation that is a media creation. Congressional encumbents can pack up and go home. If Obama succeeds, they fail for being obstructionists. If Obama fails, the fail for not offering up their own solutions.
So join a tea party. or the coffee party. the tea party is for Republican hacks and operatives and assorted FBI agents. the coffee party is for Democratic hacks and operatives and assorted FBI agents. If you are neither a hack, an operative, or an agent then start your own party. Like a Root Beer party, a Milk Shake party, or a Frozen Margarita party (aka the Fiesta Party).
So tell me about your own party. The party of one. The party of you.
And vote for yourself. Early and often. Because if you don't, who will?
da bear
Wake up and smell the Coffee Party!
It does not matter that this bill is likely to bankrupt the US (it's not about you, it's about US) if you ask all the conservative pundits. It is a giveaway to the medical-industrial complex says the Hannity's and the Rush's and the Glenn Beck's of the world (and of their world too). That is true.
But, Mister Michelle Obama got something done. He did stuff. And that is what our leaders do nowadays. They either get stuff done or they don't. ... besides the fact that THEY hate us (Why do they HATE Americans???) and want to impoverish us and spy on us and confuse us with a bunch of facts that aren't true (cough, global warming, cough). But Obama got stuff done. And the retrobate Republican Representative retreads did not. They stood in the way, they say, this Party of No (or as they say in the Universal Mexican States of Meximerica, the home of future Californians everywhere, the Party of 'No.' Or better yet, the Fiesta of No.) and accomplished nothing but selling magazines for TIME and NEWSWEEK (but isn't that all that counts?).
The Republicans offered no real solutions. They just wanted to get on the TeeVee and "spew hatred." So they get no points for this.
I hate to interrupt my rant in order to, umm, rant but I don't get the whole "Obama is driving us to Bankruptistan." Hasn't this "country", this vassal state of the City of London and Wall Street and the gnomes of Zurich and the fat bastards of Saudi Arabia, been operating out of bankrutpcy since 1933? And haven't we been headed towards bankruptcy since no later than the Year 2000? We would have been done and finished for had it not been for Nine-Eleven aka Super-Duper-Neo-Keynesianism with missiles, mini-nukes, and CGI airplanes. So why all the hate towards Obama?
"Obama will be a one term president!" shout the "venomy spewing racist haters with spew and venom" (those are not my words, those are the words of Nancy Pelosi. seriously. look it up.)
Of course Obama will be a one term-president!, I might add. However, his term may last anywhere from six more months to 60 more years. But the guy is gonna be a one term president...
Obama got health care 'done.' So the opposition is wasting its time on this issue as long as the stock markets keep rising (that is all that matters these days). Then when the stock markets fail to rise, or even worse, succeed at rising downward (crashing), the "spitting, spiting, venomy spewers of hate" will be back in full force. But this time they will win, carrying seats in the House in the upcoming mid-term elections. But their victory will be Pyrric. Their gains will be temporary. For the Dems will be sunk in November, the Repubs sunk by December, and life will go on without an entrenched political establishment.
Universial Health Care. What, it's like if Medicare had a children's menu? I don't get it. But usually I try to stay out of places with a children's menu. Just trumped up junk food, over-priced, lowest-common-denominator selection, and too many spoiled brats, whiney kids, and screaming babies running around. Come to think of it, that basically explains the Universal Health Care bill and surrounding pomp and circumstance.
Obama matters today. In the Art of Doing Stuff, doing stuff will make you an artist. Or a politician with nuclear launch codes... The Republicans did nothing. A vast majority of Democrats accompanied the Republicans in their pursuit of nothingness. The two party system is dead. We have a dictator running a nation that is a media creation. Congressional encumbents can pack up and go home. If Obama succeeds, they fail for being obstructionists. If Obama fails, the fail for not offering up their own solutions.
So join a tea party. or the coffee party. the tea party is for Republican hacks and operatives and assorted FBI agents. the coffee party is for Democratic hacks and operatives and assorted FBI agents. If you are neither a hack, an operative, or an agent then start your own party. Like a Root Beer party, a Milk Shake party, or a Frozen Margarita party (aka the Fiesta Party).
So tell me about your own party. The party of one. The party of you.
And vote for yourself. Early and often. Because if you don't, who will?
da bear
Wake up and smell the Coffee Party!
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Is this it?
Is this it?
Is the top here?
DOW slouched towards 11k after it screamed past 10k.
But did it hit 11,000? Or did it just come close?
The DOW is now down 98. It is selling off rather big, at least on a points basis.
What is the volume doing?
The most important hour on Wal-Street is here. Will this hour mark the final hour of this Great Sucker Rally?
The traitors on Da Street will tell you to not panic. Are they correct? The ones with real wisdom say that if you are gonna panic then you wanna be the first one to panic.
The stock market has had a heck of a run. To say it is winded would be an understatement. The fundamentals of the economy are not picking up. Rather, they are falling down again even though they have been laid flat on its back on the floor since 2008. Detroit is a city that is busted financially, economically, psychologically, morally. LA, CA aka Los Detroit, Mexifornia is in the same shape. Only moreso. Only worse so. It may run out of cash on May 5th. Yeah Cinco De Mayo in Cali! ... just don't expect anyone there to pay for it!!!
Obama Care has passed aka the Smoot-Hawley Health Care Act...
Get out of stocks.
That is my theme for the final hour on wal-street for the final hour of the global economic melt-up.
Get out now. Because you may not be able to get out later.
Get out now. Because it is about to get fun again.
Get out now. Because if you cash out of your brokerage account, they are gonna send you a check in a few days and you wanna go to the bank and get cash before all the others get to their money before you get to yours.
Get out now. Because even if stocks rally your core holding in gold will rally too, as will your core holding in silver. Your core holding in fiat metals will also hold up nicely!
Get out now. Because the longer the US dollar index stays above 80 the more ominous it will be for stocks. A dollar index above the 83 level will indicate that a sharp, sucker rally in the dollar is here and will have its sights set on 90-100.
Get out now. Because people SELL stocks to pay their taxes. They don't buy them.
Get out now. Find a hobby. Open a bidness on the innerrnetts.
Get out now. Kiss the Money Matrix good bye.
da bear
Is the top here?
DOW slouched towards 11k after it screamed past 10k.
But did it hit 11,000? Or did it just come close?
The DOW is now down 98. It is selling off rather big, at least on a points basis.
What is the volume doing?
The most important hour on Wal-Street is here. Will this hour mark the final hour of this Great Sucker Rally?
The traitors on Da Street will tell you to not panic. Are they correct? The ones with real wisdom say that if you are gonna panic then you wanna be the first one to panic.
The stock market has had a heck of a run. To say it is winded would be an understatement. The fundamentals of the economy are not picking up. Rather, they are falling down again even though they have been laid flat on its back on the floor since 2008. Detroit is a city that is busted financially, economically, psychologically, morally. LA, CA aka Los Detroit, Mexifornia is in the same shape. Only moreso. Only worse so. It may run out of cash on May 5th. Yeah Cinco De Mayo in Cali! ... just don't expect anyone there to pay for it!!!
Obama Care has passed aka the Smoot-Hawley Health Care Act...
Get out of stocks.
That is my theme for the final hour on wal-street for the final hour of the global economic melt-up.
Get out now. Because you may not be able to get out later.
Get out now. Because it is about to get fun again.
Get out now. Because if you cash out of your brokerage account, they are gonna send you a check in a few days and you wanna go to the bank and get cash before all the others get to their money before you get to yours.
Get out now. Because even if stocks rally your core holding in gold will rally too, as will your core holding in silver. Your core holding in fiat metals will also hold up nicely!
Get out now. Because the longer the US dollar index stays above 80 the more ominous it will be for stocks. A dollar index above the 83 level will indicate that a sharp, sucker rally in the dollar is here and will have its sights set on 90-100.
Get out now. Because people SELL stocks to pay their taxes. They don't buy them.
Get out now. Find a hobby. Open a bidness on the innerrnetts.
Get out now. Kiss the Money Matrix good bye.
da bear
Announcing The Arrival of Da Bear World Order.
"... a kinder, gentler New World Order." -- da bear
Does DOW 11k mean that the Great Recession is over? The bulls say yes. ... but so do the bears.
The bears say that this is a Spring 1930-style top with another great crash to come. I am in this camp. For a repeat of 1930 a spring top around now or the next few weeks will be something to look at (Sell in May, Go Away, Don't Come Back 'Til Judgment Day). June 1930 was volatile to the downside. This summer may be another bad one. A summer from hell, to hell.
The Great Recession is dead. Long live the Greatest Depression.
I coined the term 'Greatest Depression' first. Either me or Bob Chapman.
But this ain't necessarily a bad thing.
"Tell me Mr. Da Bear, what could be worse than 'The Greatest Depression?'"
Well, I would respond, "The Worstest Depression."
Now is the time to get your money out of the banks and put it into money (Fiat Paper, Fiat Metals, Physical Gold, Physical Silver), then find a hobby as there will be lots of downtime in this Great Downturn Part II.
Ask your local coin store dude about gold and silver coins.
Ask your local bank teller about change.
Call your Congressman!
Make an offer!
It's a buyer's market!
Write your Congressman
... a letter of recommendation.
... no new investment ideas today. Well, not really. A DOW below 10,250 is bad, meaning the Grand Super Cycle bear market is back. That is what Robin Landry thinks and he is a pretty smart dude.
I would suspect that Obama closes the Fiat Metals window at banks just as Tricky Dick Nixon closed the gold window at banks in the early seventies, and as FDR just closed all the damn banks in the early Thirties.
Stock up on vodka and cigarettes as these are assets in troubled times.
Which brand of vodka? Heck if I know... that is for the 'real' financial guru's to say (yes, the 'real' financial gurus are the ones who actually sent in their coupons for their 'real' financial guru decoder rings, who have performed at least 15 hours of community service, and go by the name 'Bob.')
da bear
The future of Da Bear World Order and everything after...
Does DOW 11k mean that the Great Recession is over? The bulls say yes. ... but so do the bears.
The bears say that this is a Spring 1930-style top with another great crash to come. I am in this camp. For a repeat of 1930 a spring top around now or the next few weeks will be something to look at (Sell in May, Go Away, Don't Come Back 'Til Judgment Day). June 1930 was volatile to the downside. This summer may be another bad one. A summer from hell, to hell.
The Great Recession is dead. Long live the Greatest Depression.
I coined the term 'Greatest Depression' first. Either me or Bob Chapman.
But this ain't necessarily a bad thing.
"Tell me Mr. Da Bear, what could be worse than 'The Greatest Depression?'"
Well, I would respond, "The Worstest Depression."
Now is the time to get your money out of the banks and put it into money (Fiat Paper, Fiat Metals, Physical Gold, Physical Silver), then find a hobby as there will be lots of downtime in this Great Downturn Part II.
Ask your local coin store dude about gold and silver coins.
Ask your local bank teller about change.
Call your Congressman!
Make an offer!
It's a buyer's market!
Write your Congressman
... a letter of recommendation.
... no new investment ideas today. Well, not really. A DOW below 10,250 is bad, meaning the Grand Super Cycle bear market is back. That is what Robin Landry thinks and he is a pretty smart dude.
I would suspect that Obama closes the Fiat Metals window at banks just as Tricky Dick Nixon closed the gold window at banks in the early seventies, and as FDR just closed all the damn banks in the early Thirties.
Stock up on vodka and cigarettes as these are assets in troubled times.
Which brand of vodka? Heck if I know... that is for the 'real' financial guru's to say (yes, the 'real' financial gurus are the ones who actually sent in their coupons for their 'real' financial guru decoder rings, who have performed at least 15 hours of community service, and go by the name 'Bob.')
da bear
The future of Da Bear World Order and everything after...
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