Dear fans,
As I mentioned in the May Rant I wanted to see gold close above $12,50 in the next 8 to 13 trading sessions. Well, it got damn close today. The high was $1,249.60. Gold had a really nice 5 wave advance too. Plus the underside of my $1,250 to $1,300 pie in the sky target was sorta reached. I mentioned that range on here somewhere. Either in a blog post or as a comment to my post.
But gold has sold off a little in the past hour or so and is trading closer to $1,240. I would not be shocked if gold is topping out. Tomorrow is key. I could see gold going either way. Either up kinda big or down big. But the "Gold is going HIGHER" trade is looking a little too easy. Call me skeptical...
PAPER GOLD MAY BE TOPPING.
A close below $1,224 will be confirmation.
Gold has always looked funny to me on the charts. The past few years have been hugely bullish almost like an entire bull market in and of itself, but I never saw the mass adulation towards the yellow metal, to say nothing of a lack of the little guy getting into gold. Oh, and if gold were in its latter stages of a super cycle mania then I would be seeing former mortgage brokers opening up a coin shop on every corner. ... speaking of which I was in the local coin store today and yesterday and buying wasn't particularly strong. But people are interested. So we have a mini-blow off in gold into nominal all-time highs with a non-confirmation of several degrees in silver, with interest among the investoriat but with no real "mass accumulation." Plus, gold and silver are talked about in the main stream media -- but not really on the front pages. Dunno about volume either. But we do know that silver is flying high -- in percentage terms it has gone up more than gold in the past week or so. That tends to happen at the end of precious metals runs. Now, if the dollar was weak then gold and silver could run higher. But the little guy is about to buy. They usually miss out on the first leg up and back up the truck and mortgage the farm at the tops. I don't see either.
So then what I think we have is the D wave high of this complex CYCLE II correction that started in the spring of 2008. Check out the link to the chart of the May Rant. The D wave up move started from $1,080 or so. And I see a completed five wave advance off that low. Heck, the thing even had a throw-over. But I think we are closer to the end of the move (could have been at $1,249.60) than the beginning. The rest of the week should be telling. According to Elliott Wave, D waves have characteristics of bullish moves but within a bear market (correction). A final E wave lower (which would be confirmed if gold does not exceed $1,250 on a closing basis VERY SOON or if gold closes below the $1,200 and $1,187 levels). Targets for an E wave low are $900-$911 or around $1,000.
The DOW had a nice day. Got close to 11,000 again. It basically filled the gap of the panic crash.
So let us see know what happens.
I wouldn't be surprised if gold, silver, and stocks decline for the rest of the week.
A failure at DOW 11,000 would make the bulls panic again and give us more corrective action as the weather starts to heat up. So say the intraday panic collapse was a wave i. This upward retrace is a wave ii (should not exceed the previous high before the wave i down). Then a wave iii would take place. I wanna use Robin Landry's number of 9,500 for that.
Tomorrow is about reverse psychology. Like think about which stocks to short, how to hedge precious metals and backing up the truck for Fiat Metals. And will oil stop working its way lower? At least for a few days?
Be prepared for Fiat Metals Friday. And tomorrow? Reverse Psychology Reversal anyone?
da bear
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Stocks and gold down. The dollar is up.
ReplyDeleteThe bulls on da street may have gotten fat-fingered.
Fiat Metals Friday is tomorrow.
And that's all I know.
da bear
Oil at $72, so when will CA gas prices drop at the pump?
ReplyDeleteEuro at $1.23 as EuroTrash buy metals and NOT consumer goods. Spending crash should be happening in EuroTrash 'weak Europe'. Tourists with Dollars will be getting bargains there. EuroTrash exports to the UK and America are cheaper while US products to EuroTrash just got more expensive. Our EuroTrash trading partners will be buying a lot less of American stuff as austerity kicks in among the PIIGS.
Obama's hope of exporting more is NOT going to happen.
BP's Gulf blow out now is guessed at 10 times larger around 70,000 barrels/day. The fishing is stopped and prices will rise in Restaraunts featuring shrimp, etc.
Gold/Silver took modest hits off their highs on Friday although Silver saw a quick 4% drop in less than an hour as the bullion banks stepped in to manipulate some naked short sales at the highs.
The poor got poorer in CA as the Terminator terminated much welfare for those who rarely vote anyways. Illinois stopped paying $4 Billion in bills months ago leaving companies without money.
Tax collections failed and the fed govt deficit widened to be 8 times what it was for the month of April in 2009. The FED opened a vein, allowing UNLIMITED currency swaps so that 'weak Europe' can get as many Trillions of Dollars as needed on demand to bailout the PIIGS at the same time that EuroTrash panic buying of Treasuries drove down 10 year notes to 3.4% yield.
NIA produced and put on YouTube its latest hyperinflation/crash of the Dollar video titled 'melt-up' but did not give a date certain for the demise of the Dollar which is strong against the EuroTrash crisis. You know, I predict the Dollar demise in 2013. In the meantime, I am enjoying the rise in the Silver and Gold which I hold to get me past the Dollar collapse.
Most doomer gurus market letter sellers are poor investors. Casey Research today stated one should merely be 20-30% in metals/mining stocks. Faber's trading positions turn out to be horrible. Schiff's investments have been bad. Roubini doom saying meant nothing as he was 100% in stocks during the last downturn. None have had the courage to be big metal holders. They were simply selling books/market letters without the convictions to invest accordingly. Hypocrits and losers, one and all of them.