Friday, April 30, 2010

Da Friday Market Review

Da markets did not do so hot today. Well unless you were out of the wrong markets and into the right markets then you did just fine. The wrong markets to be in are stocks as they seem to be topping out. The rally is looking long in the tooth and any further gains will be minimal. The volatility in stocks this week means that traders are not too sure of what is going on. A read one market watcher posit that this is due to "churning" where fast money is moving in and out of different sectors trying to find something of value; stocks are also being shifted from strong hands to weak hands. Thus, the stock market is in a topping process. The next step after the topping process would be the "stocks are breaking down" phase. But we are seeing hints of that already as Goldman Sachs had a bad day today and is threatening to break below technical resistance. I don't have the charts out but it appears that you could get a faint hint of a head-and-shoulders topping pattern in the Goldman Sachs chart (ticker symbol: GS). The stock is off a good ways from its recent highs. So that one is breaking down. Oh, and all the other financial stocks were down some today too. They always say that the overall market doesn't weaken until the financial stocks sell off. Well, it looks like they are currently doing so. And Goldman Sachs could very well be this leg down's Bear Stearns. Ahh, why hedge? Goldman Sachs WILL BE the Bear Stearns-esque poster boy for Wave 3 down.

If I am not mistaken home building stocks were also down today (if they weren't then disregard this sentence). Two of da chicks on See 'n Be Seen (for those home gamers hooked into the inner-nuts go to Dubya-dubya-dubya dot See 'n Be Seen dot CON) said that the tax credit for new home buyers expires today. But I don't see the huge rush to go out and buy a new-and-imroved McMansions (new-and-improved McMansion is real-tee-whore-speak for old, used, and dilapidated McWalk-inClosetwithDoublePlusPropertyTaxes). It seems as though people are calling the banksters' bluff and continuing to rent and not get any more "over-extended" ("over-extended" is Bankster New Speak for 'not throwing good money they don't have after bad money they don't have). Houses will not clear the market in meaningful numbers until the price of an average house reflects what the average home purchaser can afford. Prices are still relatively too high as is the supply of houses. Also, most new home sales are foreclosures -- and I would guess that they are being bought up by 'specuvestors' and not actual would-be homeowners. "Rich Dad" types as opposed to "Genuine Wealthy Uncle" types.

Generally speaking, don't buy the FIRST bank-owned house in a neighborhood. Buy the LAST bank-owned house in a neighborhood. And, crazy, as it sounds my upcoming Tulip Mania Too Point Oh will coincide with a bottoming out of the Real Estate Market (REM).

The no-brainer investment of the year (Fiat Metals) is doing just fine. Go to your local bank teller and ask him or her about them. Pick some up. Better yet, pick a lot up. If you cannot pick a lot up then buy a gym membership or use Jim's membership, get your butt down there, and start working out dammit. Because the Spring Selling Season for Houses may be over, but the Summer Buying Season for Picking Up Women is fast approaching. It is called the Full Fiat Metals Full Body Workout. More on that later...

DOW 11,008. DOW is still above 11,000. But just barely. DOW below 11,000 is when the people are gonna start getting worried. Sell-in May and Go Away (And Don't Come Back 'til Judgment Day) is gonna get here right on time. Not enough upside in stocks and too much downside (DOW 3,256...) for me to advocate staying in. If the DOW and other indices have already put in their nominal highs for this Great Suckers' Rally then this bull-esque run could mimic the 1930 secondary top if it churns in May, sells off violently in June, bottoms out around the 4th of July then rallies into Labor Day somewhat before all hell breaks lose again. Basically, this market has too many warning signs to remain bullish. The next few weeks are very important. As is Monday's market action.

Gold had a good day. Up another ten bucks to around $1,179 an ounce. Gold bucked the downtrend along with silver. The VIX was up too. Not sure what the dollar did. It is sitting at 82 and it is in a trading range between 80 and 83 until further notice. Gold rising is not a good omen for paper money. Silver is running up nicely, going up 39 cents an ounce on Thursday. I wouldn't rule out a run at $20. As I posted in a gold thread on Da Message Board $1,179 GOLD is very important. As it could go either way. Well, now let's see which way it goes. What it does will tell us what we should do along with rounding out our core position in gold (if we have not yet done so) and continued buying schedule (every few weeks or whatever works). If gold continues to rally then we buy more silver. If gold's rally fails then the start to really back up the trucks on Fiat Metals. Craig Oxley thinks that the US will stop producing coinage in September. So between now and then will be "back up the truck" time for Fiat Metals. Starting in September it will be the 'last decent chance to get into physical gold' time. ... quickly followed by "the last best chance to buy physical silver" timeframe.

Short-term gold above $1,180 means that gold can run-up to new nominal all-time highs. We could see a mini-panic spike all the way up to $1,250-$1,300 until the next cyclical correction (quite possibly the last one before the next long bullish phase begins). A weak July for stocks could bring down paper gold prices, but as long as stocks don't completely collapse I can see gold having reasons to push higher in the month of May. I am thinking of doing one of these updates during Monday's trading session. I am also thinking of doing one of these overviews after the close every Friday. So stay tuned...

... and have a great weekend everybody!









da bear

Capo di tutti capi.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Saturday Afternoon

Happy Saturday to all in Da Bear World Order land. Last night it rained like crazy, this morning it kept on going. When it rains it pours, except for the several minutes that it hailed. Yes, all hail broke loose. But then the sun decided to get out and stay for awhile. Then it went away, I think it is taking a morning nap. The clouds are here, the sun is not but it is close by, but I can see clearly now the rain is gone.

If gold were a big round shiny ball in the universe, it would probably be the sun. It shines brightly, it is always there, sometimes it burns you, and if you look at it too closely for too long you'll lose your vision and go mad, but there ain't nothing like the sun...

Gold also rises.
There is nothing new with gold.

Gold is resting today, yeah it gets a couple of days off. Good for it. It could take off more if it wanted. Gold is gold and gold does what gold wants. But gold shows up in the morning just for fun. It doesn't wanna lose its edge. It's not even about the money for gold; for gold, money is merely a way of keeping store.

Gold is currently priced around $1,150 an ounce. The recent past has been stormy for gold, gold has been beaten down, suppressed. Tremendous amounts of liquidity has been infused and withdrawn thus confusing gold and driving the gold bugs crazy. Gold went to bed for a fitful night sleep, biding its time. Then, when you thought that the stormy times had passed, all hell broke loose. But you knew that gold was still there. Somewhere. Then gold woke up and made an appearance. If only for a moment in the morning. Then the clouds rolled back in. But gold will be back later, stronger than ever, spring is here and summer is approaching. Gold's time in the sun is drawing near. Sunny days are on their way.








da bear

Monday, April 12, 2010

DBWO FOR LIFE! A introduction to Da Bear World Order and what it can do for you!

What is Da Bear World Order?
Is it something you want to be a part of?
How much are entry fees?
Do you have to know the Kennedy clan to be apart of it?
Here are the answers: Yes. Prices are negotiable and we offer financing at competitive interest rates based on LIBOR. It wouldn't hurt.
Da Bear World Order is the world order for those who were not tapped to join the New World Order. Da Bear World Order is like the sorority for chubby chicks. Which is to say, there is nothing wrong with chubby chicks... And there is nothing wrong with Da Bear World Order either. But it is not exactly the Bildergerer's. Build-A-Burger perhaps...
Da Bear World Order is a secret society for those who either cannot keep a secret, or have no dirty laundry, inside stories, or conspiracy chat worth talking about. But just because we are outside the loop doesn't mean we are entirely loopy.

If Da Bear World Order were a football conference it would not be eligible to participate in a Bowl Championship Series. But it could still beat the living fuck out of Oklahoma in a top tier bowl game...

Da Bear World Order, aka DBWO, is about playing by your own rules within their game. It is for those people who like the idea of a Tea Party and what it stands for (kinda) but understand that it is run by Republican hacks and operatives (what, by the way, is the difference between a 'hack' and an 'operative'? Is a hack in any way, shape, or form in some way less than an operative? Is the hack the unpaid intern of the Republican Corporation? Are hacks made up entirely of Alex P. Keaton and other members of the Young Republicans? If the hack is the young guy, the rookie, then intern, the pleb, then I guess the 'operatives' are for those who have graduated into full-right-wing-creep mode. In order to be an operative I suppose, you have to have had done some dirty work for the Bush Crime Family, have gone shopping for shoes with Karl Rove, or are currently the head camera man for Sean Hannity. You have to had spent years in the system to be a official 'operative' of the Republican party. You get the official Republican operative decoder ring. And you wear it. With pride. You 'respect' the political career of Richard Nixon. You 'get' Dick Cheney. You 'remember' what the 'G' in G. Gordon Liddy stands for. You get away with calling Oliver North 'Ollie' without getting traded to a South American junta for rusty rifles and decent hash.)

The Coffee Party, on the other hand is comprised mainly of Democratic Party 'hacks' and 'operatives.' Democratic Party hacks are better known as being LaRouche lackey drop-outs and kids who attended the "Liberal Arts Ivies" such as say Williams, majored in subjects such as Political Science and English, but who, nonetheless, have absolutely no chance in hell of getting into any halfway decent accredited law school -- not even Cooley...

Democratic 'operatives' within the Ruling Elite of the Coffee Party are comprised mainly of former Republican party 'hacks' who failed no make the cut for Republican Operativedom. Yes, being a Democratic 'operative' is the B Team to the Republican Party's A Team -- except for the fact that the Republican Party's A Team has no black people. (Yes, that would mean that Michael Steele is still within the confines of the 'hack team.' Michael Steele is still in the minors, somewhere between double A ball and triple A ball. For the Republicans, titular recognition matters not. That is the great thing about the Republican Party. They confuse the fuck out of you.)

What does that, dear reader, have to do with Da Bear World Order? Well, I will tell you in the best way that I can. That is by typing furiously, single-mindedly, and with no regard for humanity. I will start by saying this: it took hundreds of years for the Republican Party and the Democratic Party to form subversive political parties -- parties made primarily of those working for the Big Bad Guys and putting the good little guys on lists (Bill Bonner's AgoraCo. Mailing List for example). But I don't play by their rules. I play by my own rules. And I break my own rules. That is why I have established a rogue political party -- a front front group -- without formally forming an established political party. They have the coffee parties and the tea parties. I have the Green Tea Party. My Green Tea Party is comprised of Da Bear World Order Party aka Da Grand Old Da Bear World Order Party (DGODBWOP) hacks and operatives -- a mainstream political party that I retroactively formed and whose bylaws, corporate charters, and T-shirts say was formed in the inauspicious year of 1984 (it would have been the party of Ronald Reagan had Ronald Reagan done a better job of playing Ronald Reagan. Da Bear World Order Party Defeats Mondale in LANDSLIDE!!!!). The hacks comprising the not-so-talented-tenth of dubiously 'Christian' private high schools, guys who think that the CIA is a cooking school (which it really is, but don't tell them that), and somewhat groovy dudes who used to be hacks in the Libertarian and Green parties but who thought the leadership was lame (Ralph Nader and the guy who runs lewrockwell.com... it could be a guy named Lew Rockwell for all I know...) and who realized that Da Bear World Order Party had better chicks ("Chicks Dig Da Bear!" t-shirts now on sale for the low, low, low price of $9.11!!!). My party operatives are former operatives of the mainstream political parties, the Democrats, the Republicans, the General Electric Party (yes, G.E. is also a political party), and the Lutherans. I poached these operatives with promises of stock options (don't laugh, because I sure as hell didn't when I offered them that during salary negotations), access to a used foose ball table, and two and a half weeks at our time share in Modesto.

The official business plan of The Green Tea Party (comprised of Demopublicans twice removed) is to unite the fringe left (the hippy, dippy, save the Earth at all costs unless it is trying to take over the world, down with corporations except for the dudes that make Volkswagons, Apple computers, and dread locks, pot-smoking Naderites) and the fringe right (the buzz-cut and mullett-wearing, Ron Paul voting, Sarah Palin impersonator toe-sucking, militia joining, votech school dropping-outing, France hating yet I only put ketchup and mustard on my hot dog for 4th of July eating, pot-bellied Reaganites). Indeed, The Green Tea Party unites the fringe left and the fringe right in order to form a fuzzy-headed fringe middle.

So I now have a back story to the political machinations of Da Bear World Order along with the requisite quasi-bogus political party to bring my nutty dreams to fruition.

How to spot a Da Bear World Orderite:

He asks the local bank teller about change. Then he asks the local bank teller to put his 5,000 pennies into duffle bags...

He rants about how gold is the only form of money! ... other than silver, of course.

He thinks that the love of paper money is the root of all paper cuts.

He thinks that the drinking age should be lowered to 18, and the voting age should be raised to 21. The reasoning being that a young, first-time voter would make better decisions at the ballot box if he or she had been drunk for three straight years. He also thinks that beer and liquor should only be legal for people under the age of 35. After that your ass needs to get sober. Just in case you live in Poland, the whole government of that country dies in a plane crash (Air Titanic), and it just so happens that you are next in the line of succession and are made president (kinda like in the movie "King Ralph" starring, perhaps 'starring' is too strong a word, maybe 'featuring' John Goodman, or 'filling-in-for-John-Candy'...)

He orders iced green tea at Starbuck's and actually drinks it.

He or she is in opposition to the direct election of Senators. Da Bear World Orderites think that having the people actually vote for Senators is too direct and messy. He instead proposes a more convoluted process whereby election is rather murky yet somehow majestically ordained. They are somewhat Calvinistic in this sense.

He thinks the 'Progressive Era' amendments are a fraud.

He thinks that California is a fraud, but would nonetheless would contemplate instigating a civil war between Northern California and Southern California and would make the hiring of illegal Mexican invaders (as opposed to legal Mexican invaders) the McGuffin (a McGuffin is a worthless artifact or flimsy premise around which an entire movie is made. Such as the Holy Grail in "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade," the Raiders in the "Raiders of the Lost Decades of the Al Davis Regime", Elizabeth Berkley in "Showgirls" -- her boobs exempted, Mac Culkin in "Home Alone", and the future in "Back to the Future" parts one, two, and three). This particular civil war would be started by the Yankee Californians sinking the Queen Mary in Long Beach, then the Confederate Californians would retaliate by pointing out the current, deplorable state of Silicon Valley. Famous battles would ensue. The Battle of Fresno would be interrupted in order for a fire fight to break out in The Battle of Fresno: The California Civil War Edition. Similar battles would take place in Los Angeles (current intertribal and extratribal warfare in the LA county environs, aka LOS DETROIT, and moved to Simi Valley to take place at a later date in time). The occupation of Disneyland by Yankee California forces will prove to be a tipping point. Another tipping point would be the HUGE Red Chinese Army's failure to act for the benefit of the Southern California Confederacy as classes at CalTech and UC Irvine are still in session...).
Obama would then turn on his teleprompter and give a speech freeing the illegal aliens presently in the area south of Santa Barbara (certain areas north of Santa Barbara played off one side against the other, selling gee-gaws and t-shirts to both sides. Fucking Solvang!), exhorting the Mexican Expats (Mexipats) to invade the rest of the country thus infecting the rest of Obama Nation with cheap labor, gangs in white t-shirts, and upiquitous taqueria mystery meat...








da bear

Any questions?

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Obama Nation, Tea Parties, and You!

If Politics is the Art of Doing Stuff, and I think it is when you get right down to it, then Obama got points from the pointy-headed politicos for ramming down the universal health care legislation down numerous throats in the House and Senate. He did something, that Obama, that talker and back slapper. He really, really did something.

It does not matter that this bill is likely to bankrupt the US (it's not about you, it's about US) if you ask all the conservative pundits. It is a giveaway to the medical-industrial complex says the Hannity's and the Rush's and the Glenn Beck's of the world (and of their world too). That is true.
But, Mister Michelle Obama got something done. He did stuff. And that is what our leaders do nowadays. They either get stuff done or they don't. ... besides the fact that THEY hate us (Why do they HATE Americans???) and want to impoverish us and spy on us and confuse us with a bunch of facts that aren't true (cough, global warming, cough). But Obama got stuff done. And the retrobate Republican Representative retreads did not. They stood in the way, they say, this Party of No (or as they say in the Universal Mexican States of Meximerica, the home of future Californians everywhere, the Party of 'No.' Or better yet, the Fiesta of No.) and accomplished nothing but selling magazines for TIME and NEWSWEEK (but isn't that all that counts?).

The Republicans offered no real solutions. They just wanted to get on the TeeVee and "spew hatred." So they get no points for this.

I hate to interrupt my rant in order to, umm, rant but I don't get the whole "Obama is driving us to Bankruptistan." Hasn't this "country", this vassal state of the City of London and Wall Street and the gnomes of Zurich and the fat bastards of Saudi Arabia, been operating out of bankrutpcy since 1933? And haven't we been headed towards bankruptcy since no later than the Year 2000? We would have been done and finished for had it not been for Nine-Eleven aka Super-Duper-Neo-Keynesianism with missiles, mini-nukes, and CGI airplanes. So why all the hate towards Obama?

"Obama will be a one term president!" shout the "venomy spewing racist haters with spew and venom" (those are not my words, those are the words of Nancy Pelosi. seriously. look it up.)
Of course Obama will be a one term-president!, I might add. However, his term may last anywhere from six more months to 60 more years. But the guy is gonna be a one term president...

Obama got health care 'done.' So the opposition is wasting its time on this issue as long as the stock markets keep rising (that is all that matters these days). Then when the stock markets fail to rise, or even worse, succeed at rising downward (crashing), the "spitting, spiting, venomy spewers of hate" will be back in full force. But this time they will win, carrying seats in the House in the upcoming mid-term elections. But their victory will be Pyrric. Their gains will be temporary. For the Dems will be sunk in November, the Repubs sunk by December, and life will go on without an entrenched political establishment.

Universial Health Care. What, it's like if Medicare had a children's menu? I don't get it. But usually I try to stay out of places with a children's menu. Just trumped up junk food, over-priced, lowest-common-denominator selection, and too many spoiled brats, whiney kids, and screaming babies running around. Come to think of it, that basically explains the Universal Health Care bill and surrounding pomp and circumstance.

Obama matters today. In the Art of Doing Stuff, doing stuff will make you an artist. Or a politician with nuclear launch codes... The Republicans did nothing. A vast majority of Democrats accompanied the Republicans in their pursuit of nothingness. The two party system is dead. We have a dictator running a nation that is a media creation. Congressional encumbents can pack up and go home. If Obama succeeds, they fail for being obstructionists. If Obama fails, the fail for not offering up their own solutions.

So join a tea party. or the coffee party. the tea party is for Republican hacks and operatives and assorted FBI agents. the coffee party is for Democratic hacks and operatives and assorted FBI agents. If you are neither a hack, an operative, or an agent then start your own party. Like a Root Beer party, a Milk Shake party, or a Frozen Margarita party (aka the Fiesta Party).
So tell me about your own party. The party of one. The party of you.
And vote for yourself. Early and often. Because if you don't, who will?








da bear

Wake up and smell the Coffee Party!

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Is this it?

Is this it?
Is the top here?
DOW slouched towards 11k after it screamed past 10k.
But did it hit 11,000? Or did it just come close?
The DOW is now down 98. It is selling off rather big, at least on a points basis.
What is the volume doing?
The most important hour on Wal-Street is here. Will this hour mark the final hour of this Great Sucker Rally?
The traitors on Da Street will tell you to not panic. Are they correct? The ones with real wisdom say that if you are gonna panic then you wanna be the first one to panic.
The stock market has had a heck of a run. To say it is winded would be an understatement. The fundamentals of the economy are not picking up. Rather, they are falling down again even though they have been laid flat on its back on the floor since 2008. Detroit is a city that is busted financially, economically, psychologically, morally. LA, CA aka Los Detroit, Mexifornia is in the same shape. Only moreso. Only worse so. It may run out of cash on May 5th. Yeah Cinco De Mayo in Cali! ... just don't expect anyone there to pay for it!!!
Obama Care has passed aka the Smoot-Hawley Health Care Act...
Get out of stocks.
That is my theme for the final hour on wal-street for the final hour of the global economic melt-up.
Get out now. Because you may not be able to get out later.
Get out now. Because it is about to get fun again.
Get out now. Because if you cash out of your brokerage account, they are gonna send you a check in a few days and you wanna go to the bank and get cash before all the others get to their money before you get to yours.
Get out now. Because even if stocks rally your core holding in gold will rally too, as will your core holding in silver. Your core holding in fiat metals will also hold up nicely!
Get out now. Because the longer the US dollar index stays above 80 the more ominous it will be for stocks. A dollar index above the 83 level will indicate that a sharp, sucker rally in the dollar is here and will have its sights set on 90-100.
Get out now. Because people SELL stocks to pay their taxes. They don't buy them.
Get out now. Find a hobby. Open a bidness on the innerrnetts.
Get out now. Kiss the Money Matrix good bye.







da bear

Announcing The Arrival of Da Bear World Order.

"... a kinder, gentler New World Order." -- da bear


Does DOW 11k mean that the Great Recession is over? The bulls say yes. ... but so do the bears.
The bears say that this is a Spring 1930-style top with another great crash to come. I am in this camp. For a repeat of 1930 a spring top around now or the next few weeks will be something to look at (Sell in May, Go Away, Don't Come Back 'Til Judgment Day). June 1930 was volatile to the downside. This summer may be another bad one. A summer from hell, to hell.

The Great Recession is dead. Long live the Greatest Depression.
I coined the term 'Greatest Depression' first. Either me or Bob Chapman.
But this ain't necessarily a bad thing.
"Tell me Mr. Da Bear, what could be worse than 'The Greatest Depression?'"
Well, I would respond, "The Worstest Depression."

Now is the time to get your money out of the banks and put it into money (Fiat Paper, Fiat Metals, Physical Gold, Physical Silver), then find a hobby as there will be lots of downtime in this Great Downturn Part II.

Ask your local coin store dude about gold and silver coins.
Ask your local bank teller about change.

Call your Congressman!
Make an offer!
It's a buyer's market!

Write your Congressman
... a letter of recommendation.

... no new investment ideas today. Well, not really. A DOW below 10,250 is bad, meaning the Grand Super Cycle bear market is back. That is what Robin Landry thinks and he is a pretty smart dude.

I would suspect that Obama closes the Fiat Metals window at banks just as Tricky Dick Nixon closed the gold window at banks in the early seventies, and as FDR just closed all the damn banks in the early Thirties.

Stock up on vodka and cigarettes as these are assets in troubled times.
Which brand of vodka? Heck if I know... that is for the 'real' financial guru's to say (yes, the 'real' financial gurus are the ones who actually sent in their coupons for their 'real' financial guru decoder rings, who have performed at least 15 hours of community service, and go by the name 'Bob.')






da bear

The future of Da Bear World Order and everything after...